Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm. https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
The supposed cool day this week and it still climbed to 26.8C at Heathrow over 2C warmer than average. Remarkable month the average July high in London has been 29.3C an astonishing +5.4C above 1991-2020 climo and +6.8C on 1961-1990 climate period. Staggering. (1/2)
Loading the dice. The weather conditions driving the devastating fires in Spain were ~20× more likely because of human-caused climate change, and ~2× more likely in France. Of course, the spark matters...but the conditions decide the scale. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain – World Weather Attributionwww.worldweatherattribution.org
We have to stop thinking of droughts simply as a static state of low moisture. Rapid drought changes can send fire risk soaring.
Flash droughts pull ‘alarming’ amounts of moisture from the landscape and intensify wildfires: new researchtheconversation.com
Temperatures reached 35.2°C today, marking the 7th day of 2026 where the UK has recorded 35°C or higher 👇 Prior to this year, the record was 5 days of ≥35°C, set in 1976 and 2020 🌡️
Was curious how ENSO forecasts did during the 2023-2024 El Nino event. The model plume bracketed the eventual NINO3.4 trajectory fairly well, with some outliers in both directions (e.g. AUS-ACCESS, MetFrance, BCC, CPC Markov) - data from IRI: iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
🚨 The AusAlert that will sound on your phone shortly is a test for a future warning system to prepare Australians for fires, floods and other emergencies. But we can’t rely on emergency alerts alone; we need to cut the climate pollution from coal, oil and gas that’s driving these worsening events.
The UK has just recorded its first three week long heatwave on record, based on recent Met Office observations - 21 days at Exeter Airport and Usk beats the record of 17 days at Cambridge in 1976 by 4 days. It has been a notable summer so far, with records continuing to tumble.
Holiday in the climate emergency. No that’s not AI or edited, just a snapshot I just took with my phone on Lacanau beach in France. What future will this boy grow up in? It is in our hands, but time is running out.
2026 is on track to be the warmest (~35% chance) or second warmest (~63%) year on record, while 2027 is very likely (92% chance) to be the warmest on record on the back of a growing super El Niño event. For more, check out my new Carbon Brief State of the Climate Q2 update: www.carbonbrief.org/...
As long expected. It’s climate science 101. The vapor thirst of the atmosphere increases exponentially with temperature. A law of physics known since the early 19th C (Clausius–Clapeyron law). It causes more drought even if rainfall doesn’t decline. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Climate crisis-driven heat ‘sucking soils dry’ as extreme drought hits EuropeAnalysis shows how heatwaves are making atmosphere thirstier, damaging water supplies, food production and power generationwww.theguardian.com
The seasonal forecast models continue to point towards an end of the year El Niño peak that would be the strongest ever recorded. Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.
Brace for impact. IRI join NOAA, JMA, BoM, ECWMF etc. in forecasting a very strong El Niño event. Full IRI July update: iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
Some crazy record July temperatures in Australia's alpine region this weekend (where it is winter, for northern hemisphere followers). Mount Hotham's usual daily max temp is zero C, but it saw 12C at the weekend - 3.3C above it's previous hottest July day. More in this story from me.
Australian ski resorts smash July climate records with temperatures 12C above averageResorts in New South Wales and Victoria face a warm and dry start to the season with only sporadic falls of natural snow in many alpine areaswww.theguardian.com
Climate we had in 20th Century 'has now gone' say UK Met Office. For example the number of days over 30C and nights over 18C has more than quadrupled for Greater London in the period 2016-2025, compared to 1961-1990. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Climate extremes are becoming the new ‘normal’ for the UK“What we used to think of as extreme, we increasingly consider as normal.” That is the summarising comment from Mike Kendon, the Met Office lead author of the latest edition of the State of the UK Cli...www.metoffice.gov.uk