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I've previously done 2026 and 2027 global temperature estimates for the Earth's surface, but a lot of people also seem interested in what will happen in the lower troposphere (TLT). Historically TLT has had a much bigger response to El Niño and La Niña than we see on the surface:

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO). For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.

Jim Hansen and I have had a friendly debate about whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record or not. In a new piece, I explain how we both might end up being right: 2026 is increasingly likely to be the warmest in GISTEMP but second across all six records: www.theclimatebrink....

Fires in France have now burned over 91,000 acres, by far the most of any year since the satellite record started in 2006. Current area burned is about 34x larger than this date in a typical (median) year:

I updated my Climate Dashboard to now include a daily-updating Nino 3.4 region plot (with a ONI / RONI toggle up top): dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso

2026 is on track to be the warmest (~35% chance) or second warmest (~63%) year on record, while 2027 is very likely (92% chance) to be the warmest on record on the back of a growing super El Niño event. For more, check out my new Carbon Brief State of the Climate Q2 update: www.carbonbrief.org/...

The claim that "pink elephants cannot fly" is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that pink elephants can fly. 🙄

A recent viral graph found fewer days in the contiguous US above 95F/100F/105F today than in the 1930s. But the graph is misleading – it fails to correct for changing measurement times and techniques, and overstates regional warmth. I take a deep dive at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....

The Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific has been hovering above 2C for the past week. This is the threshold for a very strong ("super") El Niño event, and it was reached more than a month before the prior record set during 1997/1998:

Canada's boreal forest is roughly the size of Europe (or 4.5x the size of Texas). Most fires are in remote areas far from habitation in that have never had a history of fire suppression or management. And the amount that is burning is directly linked to temperature and rainfall.