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Zeke Hausfather

I've previously done 2026 and 2027 global temperature estimates for the Earth's surface, but a lot of people also seem interested in what will happen in the lower troposphere (TLT). Historically TLT has had a much bigger response to El Niño and La Niña than we see on the surface:

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3 прямых ответов · 5 сообщений

Randall Gates

Do we get more latent heat release into TLT during El Niño years? 🤔

Zeke Hausfather

There is also a longer lag between peak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and maximum global temperature increases in the troposphere (~4.5 months) than on the surface (~3 months).

Ответ для Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather

If I apply my forecast model to the lower troposphere, I get a more modest 2026 temperature response but a much larger 2027 one. Here's what it looks like in the UAH TLT dataset. Note this is using a more recent 1991-2020 baseline as we don't have TLT data back to the 1800s.

Ответ для Zeke Hausfather
Zeke Hausfather

And here is the forecast for the RSS TLT dataset:

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