Профиль

First comes heat, then comes fire. it's a sad reality that persistent heatwaves often create the conditions for serious wildfires, as is happening now in Spain and southern France. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Not every summer, and never the whole summer, but yes there is reason to suspect this kind of atmospheric pattern is becoming more common.

I probably wouldn't say "good", but it is cool and interesting if you are a weather nerd.

Yes.

More information on June weather is available here: berkeleyearth.org/june-2026-te... Or you can learn more about Rossby waves at Wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_...

This Rossby wave was likely anchored by the warmth in the Northern Pacific and the cold blob in the North Atlantic (oceanic patterns generally being more persistent than ones over land). The Rossby wave also helped create the extreme June heatwave in Europe.

See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes? That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream). It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.

Yeah, under the right conditions you can have Foehn events from air coming off the high ice sheet and descending towards the sea.

More information about the processes that create Foehn winds can be found at Wikipedia. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foehn_w...

Usually when you have Foehn winds, it lasts a few hours at most. Salta Aerodrome in the shadow of the Andes got roasted in Foehn winds for more than 2 days with record-breaking temperatures and near zero humidity.

When winds coming over a mountain range are forced to descend rapidly, the moisture loss and pressure change causes rapid heating. Such hot, dry Foehn winds occur occasionally next to mountains all over the world, but this is the most extreme example I've ever seen.

The long-term annual and summer trends in precipitation are mostly either flat or modestly increasing. changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/cha... But my thread pretty explicitly noted the role of variability (e.g. dry years) in contributing to fire conditions.

That's an oddly strong statement considering that BC was only 4th highest on the list of provinces by area burned in 2023, accounting for only ~1/6 of the total. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Uncertainties reflect differences in outcomes across model runs begun with slightly different initial conditions (i.e. an ensemble approach). Beyond that, I don't know why the CESM1 ensemble spread is so large.

The seasonal forecast models continue to point towards an end of the year El Niño peak that would be the strongest ever recorded. Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.

Also, your chart is badly mislabeled. Yang et al. is a study of wildfires, not forest fires. The declining trend in global averages is mostly due to decreased grassland/savannah fires in Africa, which the authors attribute to better land management. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Yes, because wildfire isn't a monolithic issue. It depends locally on temperature, precipitation, and land management. Only temperature is reliably higher in most places. Precipitation patterns are higher or lower regionally, and land management practices globally trend towards suppression.

Over at Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com has a helpful longer discussion of the history of forest fires in Canada, the effects of modern climate change, and why Canadian forest fires aren't the same as those in places like California. 6/6 www.theclimatebrink.com/p/canadas-bo...

~80% of the enormous Canadian forests have never been logged or managed in any way. Increasing wildfire activity in such remote forests is mostly the result of environmental changes, particularly the increased temperatures from global warming. 5/

In the modern era, 9 of the 10 worst Canadian fire seasons by burn area have occurred in years when the fire season saw both above average temperatures and below average rainfall (black circles). 4/