Профиль

bsky.app/profile/poll...

A new large-scale European study finds that when people feel their identity is under threat, they tend to prioritize security, control, and tradition over openness, and become less supportive of liberal democratic policies. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

NEW —> Democratic Senate candidates pursue a new strategy in rural states: Dropping out It’s happening in Nebraska & Idaho. Efforts underway to replicate in MT & SD. Dem brand is so tarnished there Ds have no shot. But independents may—in 1 on 1 vs Rs. www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

Thought that said “meats.” Meats would be better. Meats would be roadkill.

Full toplines and crosstabs are here: www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...

Generic ballot numbers tend to get outsized attention, but IMO we asked a bunch of interesting stuff in our latest poll, so I want to highlight some of the findings that aren't directly horserace: www.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change

This isn’t a dunk but I do like it when this happens.

I/Claude created a polling average tracker of high quality polls using a variety of methodologies. Ignores A/RV/LV differences. Whether you think 2026 will be a bad for cataclysmic year for Republicans depends entirely on polling. methodology. Topline: Approval 37.6%. Generic ballot at D+6.3 1/

Brendan, Jaime, Magdalena, Olivier and I have been working on this paper for six years and it is finally out. Brendan summarized the findings but I wanted to speak to the process/design. We started off wanting to reduce misinfo exposure -- BUT that is challenging because...

The Best Article Award for a paper published on ITP is awarded to Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Alex Lyman, Justin Olcott, Jackson Pond and David Wingate (all Brigham Young University) for their article “Testing theories of political persuasion using AI”. Congratulations! 🎉

Expect more lopsided polls as the midterms approach. Lower political interest people are starting to tune in to politics, and as they begin to look at it, the political information stream hits them & shapes their vote intention—& the info stream is nothing but awful for the GOP.

New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...

Editor responded that stuff like this is “ruining my life.” Effect on junior folks doing it the right way really sucks, delayed review times, suspicion, worn out reviewers. Ugh.

Have been wondering about the potential for "balancing" voters, e.g. Republicans and Indies who want Trump to be constrained by Congress a bit more in order to help him. Effects of their turnout/votes could supercharge midterm losses. doi.org/10.1017/S153...

Let’s say you get these published somehow. You fooled everyone. What do folks think is going to happen come promotion time, or any other time in the future, when they are found out? I simply don’t understand the long-term thinking here.

Friend just rejected second AI-written paper this week. Journals need to ban authors who waste our time on this crap.

🚨New Science Advances🚨 Untrustworthy sources on Facebook and Instagram in 2020: Concentrated exposure but no attitudinal effects www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... -Exposure very low but highly concentrated -Reducing exposure by ~70% for months had no measurable effects *even among frequent consumers*

Have been wondering about the potential for "balancing" voters, e.g. Republicans and Indies who want Trump to be constrained by Congress a bit more in order to help him. Effects of their turnout/votes could supercharge midterm losses. doi.org/10.1017/S153...