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2) There *has* been a genuine shift towards non-statehood options in recent years. The long tail of Hurricane Maria's devastation is not to be underestimated for how it's pushed Puerto Ricans, especially young islanders, in new directions. See here:

‘We are limited by the US in every aspect’: the young people behind Puerto Rico’s independence movementPopular sentiment has been growing since 2017, when the US failed in providing disaster relief after Hurricane Mariawww.theguardian.com
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There are a lot of folks on here who are saying that the issue is essentially decided, that there's a pro-statehood supermajority, and that's that. That's... not exactly true. The issue remains in flux. But a lot hinges on the option *bundled* with independence. What's free association?

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3 прямых ответов · 25 сообщений

Yeah, none of these referenda have been binding or plausibly binding and that's immediately relevant to how they should be interpreted at any level beyond "fully cutting ties is probably the least popular option".

The idea of a supermajority is kinda baffling, I've always thought at best there was a simple majority for statehood

Ответ для Bring Back The Twin Star Rocket

Nah

The answer to *that* question will have a profound impact on any binding referendum vote, assuming it's an option (this is one of the things Avila Chevalier could vote on, and why her views matter so much).

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

For some in PR, "free association" means the status quo. In English we call PR a "commonwealth," in Spanish, that's translated as "Estado Libre Asociado." But others want to push PR towards being part of the US's Compact of Free Association--like Palau and Micronesia.

Compact of Free Association - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

These agreements, however, are country by country. Major outstanding issues would have to be defined. Does PR use the US dollar? Does birthright US citizenship still apply? What about PR's debt? Will the US military maintain access to the island?

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Such complexities cloud measures of support for "sovereignty," because their answers will change Puerto Rican islanders' views on the issue. And rest assured, if the US *does* get serious about a binding referendum, this will all become more urgent by far. If you care, you should be ready.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Finally, there's the question of the Jones Act. Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920. If you're Alaskan or Hawaiian, you're also probably familiar with the fuckery it's caused. For Puerto Rico, the stakes are even higher.

Merchant Marine Act of 1920 - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Would the “negotiation” on these matters be with the governor of PR or would they need to use sympathetic reps in congress (or their non-voting ones)?

Ответ для Adam “TurboLib” Sessler 🇺🇦

Right now, Congress would functionally be negotiating with itself on any changes to the Jones Act. The governor of PR can advocate, of course, but it's not up to her in any sense. At least not formally. If things ever got serious, of course I'm sure there'd be influence campaigns on both sides.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Notably, as AK and HI make clear, PR becoming a state will not fix this law, which requires all shipping from the US mainland to be conducted by US-built, owned, and crewed ships. Think of what that does to grocery prices and you see the problem.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Independence would make it go away immediately--would COFA do it too? Maybe? But also with statehood, PR would gain valuable representation in Congress and could tip the balance. Who knows? But if you're advocating for statehood you need to keep this in mind.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Wow somebody making a civilized response i applaud you

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

The Jones Act does not apply to any of the COFA states, and there's no reason to believe it would in the hypothetical case of Puerto Rico becoming an independent state that joins COFA. In practice, there's no legal way it could - the US has no authority over Palau/FSM/Marshall Islands trade law.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

The issues are complex from the PR side, much more clear when viewed from the US side.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross
V

Thanks for this thread, really informative!

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

I really wish the states that were originally helped by that would get involved. I live in the greater Boston area and back then it encouraged shipbuilding at the port here, but now we aren't doing that and it limits commercial shipping access from the port to every other on the coast and to PR.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

The Jones Act should be repealed, but at the very least the non-contiguous states need to be exempted from it.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

The Jones Act sucks so hard because we've allowed the US merchant marine and US shipbuilding to atrophy

Ответ для Dennis Lytton

Tell me what you know about the merchant marine

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

Yes, because deregulation always works so well 🙄 The "invisible hand of the free market" and all that. If you wish to repeal the Jones Act, just be honest enough to say that Union workers make too much money and their kids shouldn't have health insurance.

Ответ для David (he, him)

its always that thing

Ответ для David (he, him)

We need to invest in American shipbuilding and jobs for American flaged ships. That is the answer to shipping costs for AK, HI, and PR.

Ответ для David (he, him)

Union workers make too much money and their children shouldn’t have healthcare… Now that I’ve repeated your stupid trope, let’s get on with it and stop letting anti-social unions prevent economic benefit for the whole population.

Ответ для Katherine Alejandra Cross

At *best* COFA is a protectorate status for tiny micro-states too isolated for tourism or big industry. For which we have residual post WWII moral obligations. In reality their affairs, of all but the most local issues, are dictated by Washington. COFA, IMHO, is not a scalable or just arrangement.