Professor of Political Science, Columbia. New Book: The Insiders' Game: How Elites Make War and Peace https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691215808/the-insiders-game
Today in Humiliation and/or Escalation
ShipwreckCENTCOM: At 5:45 p.m. ET today, IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness.
The risks of an attack on Iran were well understood for years. but now that we're in a post-attack Middle East, we're testing the worst case scenarios in real time. Still tbd how the war will affect Iran's nuclear ambitions but the odds are not great it will curtail them.
Just came across an article I wrote in 2012 warning against an Israeli attack on Iran and how a post-attack Middle East could be the worst of all outcomes, including for Israel. But Netanyahu never believed this and unfortunately neither did Trump.
Israel's Risky Option on IranWhile a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, write...www.rand.org
".. It is easier to shoot if you are not being shot at,” said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on the Iranian ballistic missile program .. “They are not having to scramble launchers around, so it is a much more favourable operational environment for them.” @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/82ac...
How Iran adapted its missile war with TrumpRecent fighting has provided conditions for Tehran’s forces to launch more precision strikes across Gulf and Jordanwww.ft.com
WSJ: ".. concerns in Washington about how many missiles the U.S. military has left. It can take between three and five years to make a new missile .. The White House and the Pentagon are pressing defense contractors .., but there’s only so much that can be done." www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Washington’s Very Sensitive Secret: How Many U.S. Missiles Are Left?Plus, Darline Graham gets on-the-job training in the Senate, and more House Democrats sour on aid to Israelwww.wsj.comCan't get numb to this: The United States is stuck in a war it started, cannot end, and may further escalate to no avail, having dismantled its diplomatic apparatus, depleted its military stockpile, and destroyed its credibility. A historic strategic mistake harming millions in many different ways.
Heartbreaking. The US has still not released a report on why 120 Iranian schoolchildren died in Minab, Iran.
Elizabeth N. SaundersAs we wait to find out what combination of humiliation and escalation Trump will choose next in the Iran war, the BBC aired a heartbreaking report on the Minab school bombing. Hard to watch but a reminder of the horrors already inflicted on the innocent. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
As we wait to find out what combination of humiliation and escalation Trump will choose next in the Iran war, the BBC aired a heartbreaking report on the Minab school bombing. Hard to watch but a reminder of the horrors already inflicted on the innocent. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
'What was their crime?': BBC visits Iran school in Minab where strike killed 120 childrenNearly five months on, grief is still raw as a teacher and a mother recall the horror of the attack in Minab.www.bbc.co.uk
Three months, two ceasefires, one MOU, and some war crimes later, it's still humiliation or escalation (which could lead to a bigger, more-drawn-out humiliation).
Nicholas GrossmanAmerica’s options with Iran are still humiliation or escalation. Trump got the U.S. into a bad strategic position. That core dynamic hasn’t changed.
Remember this? Does Trump?
Nicholas GrossmanUnder Trump/Hegseth, the US already went to war with the Houthis in Yemen. Started Mar 2025 with White House fanfare. Spent valuable munitions, lost a few jets, killed some people, failed to stop Houthi fire at ships in the Red Sea, lied about it, leaked plans on Signal, blustered more, then quit.
Nice thread about why Iran stands decidedly apart from previous US military quagmires.
Elizabeth N. SaundersMany point to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, a natural instinct and there are indeed many parallels. The US track record is appalling (as I've written abt all of them). One key difference w/ Vietnam/Afgh at least: other presidents (even Trump 1.0!) decided not to attack Iran (and Iraq's regime). 1/
