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very bad news. follows aspects of the previous Israel-Iran shadow war, including reported attacks on water infrastructure in 2020. Once the open war between the US and Iran eventually (hopefully) concludes, the US and Iran could be engaged in their own 'shadow' war for months and years ahead.

A New Level in the Cyber War between Israel and Iran | INSSCyber warfare is conducted secretly and anonymously, unless one of the sides in the confrontation has an interest in exposing it. The attacks are generally launched without claiming responsibility or ...www.inss.org.il

Just came across an article I wrote in 2012 warning against an Israeli attack on Iran and how a post-attack Middle East could be the worst of all outcomes, including for Israel. But Netanyahu never believed this and unfortunately neither did Trump.

Israel's Risky Option on IranWhile a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, write...www.rand.org

So important to document the human costs of the Iran war and its ripple effects across the globe.

Enrichment for Saudis; enrichment for Trump. A win-win.

And remember these reports less than a week before the US started the war? One of the many reasons folks were concerned about going to war with Iran.

Trump’s top general foresees acute risks in an attack on IranThe Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman has said that a lack of munitions and allied support could mean greater danger for U.S. troops, people familiar with the talks say.www.washingtonpost.com

Worth recalling that there is publicly available evidence that the depleted stockpile issue was a concern BEFORE the war and DURING the Trump administration, especially given experience of the June 2025 attack which Trump chose to join.

With missile stockpiles low and tensions with Iran high, US moves to increase weaponsAmerica’s recent use of missile interceptors has left supplies low. An Iranian counterattack would deepen the dent. The U.S. is now trying to restock.www.csmonitor.com

👇 or even bigger and more catastrophic escalation.

The latest example of what happens when you have personalized gov't and no normal policy process. Also, Biden invested an inexplicable amount of time trying to link the nuclear carrot to Saudi normalization with Israel with zero results.

Same as it ever was (since February 28)

Going from bad to worse as Iran war further regionalizes. The looming risk of a Red Sea closure/disruption combined with continuing Hormuz closure appears to be happening. Finding an offramp for Hormuz couldn't come soon enough.

Some of the more interesting ideas for an offramp to US-Iran escalation focus on regional solutions. @yarbatman.bsky.social and his group are thinking creatively about how to get out of the Hormuz crisis that this war unfortunately created. Even if politically difficult it's a basis to build on.

How a 'Hormuz Fee' Could WorkA regional fee would institutionalize the kind of positive-sum diplomacy that can prevent further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.www.bourseandbazaar-substack.org

very bad news and situation is only likely to worsen. also while hopefully the missing service member is found and Jordan is friendly territory, this is a reminder that American service members are at risk of being captured if something goes wrong on Iranian territory.

Trump's repeated claims that the door to diplomacy is open and that Iran wants a deal mean little if he thinks it's still possible to reopen Hormuz through force.

US-Iran state of play looking very bad today/tonight and could get a lot worse if Iran makes good on its threats to 'crush' region's infrastructure.

Iran and US step up attacks, release of American in disputeIran and the United States exchanged intensifying fire on Thursday in a week-long escalation that has largely unraveled last month's truce, while ‌Tehran disputed President Donald Trump's claim that a...www.reuters.com

if this scenario unfolds, it could be catastrophic and would require substantial US forces. and it likely won't work. but we can't rule it out given the strategic incoherence in Washington rn.

Excellent analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X suggesting the current US strike pattern may be setting the stage for ground troops to seize Iran's southern coastal area. If accurate, this may not just be another round of attacks before more talks but an attempt to solve Hormuz through force.

At what point do we acknowledge that sustained attacks on Iranian territory and counter attacks on US bases in the region are a return to war? Not calling this war doesn't make it less of a war, one that never ended and should never have started.

Of course. The only consistent message in Trump's statements on this Iran debacle is that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, which it didn't have before this war.

"Absent some out-of-the-box plan no one has thought of, Trump’s options are narrow and might not work." Good summary of the miserable state of play that this reckless war has wrought.

it's so bad some pubs are even shutting down their fish and chip fryers!