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Предыдущая публикация

A 2 minute exchange: PM put more emphasis on fresh pair of eyes, inheriting the consultation, to listen + get fairness balance right Bellieves public interest in control + grip on immig + fair rules comes with belief in supporting & welcoming those who contribute, citing care workers as example

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 15:46

Burnham hinting a similar position to that voiced by Starmer (and which Home Office is working up) on needing to rebalance A couple of big risks in sheer complexity of the often misunderstood proposals If they think exempting NHS/care visa fixes it, then 250k other people could lose legal status

James Bowes

27 июл., 17:12

This is just visas for entry, I'd need to add students separately (and don't yet have graduate visa switchers by occupation), but here are the number of people on pre-April 2024 that would likely be forced out by the reforms, if the lower going rates and salary thresholds are allowed to expire.

James Bowes

27 июл., 17:14

The scientist and academic roles are a grey area, as people could end up able to extend their visa indefinitely without settling. 20% lower salary required to extend vs to settle if you have a STEM PhD (10% lower for a social sciences/humanities PhD).

ew6389

27 июл., 17:27

Someone with a PhD has other options and lord knows I hope they take them

James Bowes

27 июл., 17:32

Possibly they could get a global talent visa, but not always. The issue with settlement isn’t new. But what would be new is being unable to settle without a salary threshold after 10 years.

Sue

27 июл., 17:19

Should reform continue to poll well, the folk with indefinite leave to remain who will leave. The damage to the economy will be immense

James Bowes

27 июл., 17:22

This is who'd have to leave if Labour bring in Earned Settlement for existing people and exempt care workers.

Kirsti M

27 июл., 17:31

Any idea how many architects would have to leave? I need to email RIBA & RIAS again and that number would be useful.

James Bowes

27 июл., 17:34

These numbers are all grants and I’ve selected the occupations where the majorities would need to emigrate but the number of architects pre-April 2024 is 433. Slightly higher technically but I don’t have Q2 2024 data.

James Bowes

27 июл., 17:38

For what it’s worth for in country visa grants in 2025 have the following salary distribution: Q1: £37,725 Median: £42,910 Q3: £49,775 Going rate: £47,600.

Jonathan Kingham

27 июл., 17:42

Is that who Sunder is referring to when he says 250k will have to leave, do you think?

James Bowes

27 июл., 18:01

Yes. That’s a rough estimate including visas for entry, former students and dependants of both. I’d need to do a more detailed analysis to get a better figure, but really need to get data on graduate visa switchers. This is just a top 20 list.

James Bowes

27 июл., 18:03

Full list of main applicants for entry 88,663. So 250,000 probably a slight underestimate. Add in student/graduate visa switchers and dependants but reduce slightly for people who would have emigrated anyway. Switchers have fewer dependants but more likely to have to leave.

Jonathan Kingham

27 июл., 18:08

Ok thanks.. so it is re the April 2024 changes sunset provisions; that we were talking about before. I’m just worried I was missing something else!

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 17:47

This is 55k main applicants (excluding dependents) before considering post-study to work. It will be useful to establish if 150k or 200k or 250k is a better estimate (once exempt health/social care)

Jonathan Kingham

27 июл., 17:59

Sorry, just so I am clear: you are talking about the effect of the current sunset provisions for Skilled Workers re salary level and skill level transitional provisions

James Bowes

27 июл., 18:07

Yes. Salary threshold sunset and jobs downgraded to low skilled. On current plans people will have to leave. Unclear whether the government will extend these to be less unfair or will say ‘you’ve had 6 years to increase your salary to match the new requirements now’.

Jonathan Kingham

27 июл., 18:06

Is that right? (In particular the 2030 sunset relating to the April 2024 salary uplift transitionals?)

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 15:49

Having these reforms, but not for the 2019-24-26 cohort [which was their poimt/purpose] would be a weird complex zombie policy with no obvious rationale at all. Maybe the most likely political compromise now

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 15:54

Mahmood has signalled a willingness to soften the reforms, with sources calling this a "sop" to the PLP. Also “[Tapp] took proposals that the home secretary was working on and briefed them as his own" seemed to signal agreement on exempting care workers, while wanting Tapp fired for revealing it

Kirsti M

27 июл., 15:57

This feels like trying to read the runes. It’s so hard to make head or tail of what will happen to those of us who are not care workers but pre April 24 visa holders.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 15:59

Yes - I think the broad argument about fairness for care workers has been accepted (though not necessarily how to apply it] but whether this reflects a general principle to be applied to the whole cohort is much less clear. So "this is not just about care workers" is the key theme to get across

Kirsti M

27 июл., 16:18

The media needs to wake up quickly. Because my MP couldn’t grasp that I was not a care worker and therefore would be left out of that exemption.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 15:56

Tapp described the policy in the misleading shorthand of blanket 5 to 10 years for everyone. Its an 8+ tier policy: 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years [most], 20 years refugees, 30 years with penalties, even 50 years [maybe as an accidental by-product of the proposals] bsky.app/profile/sund...

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

Even if evem the minister responsible seems unable to accurately describe the initial proposals

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

27 июл., 16:01

It may be probable that the Home Sec can get the PM's broad support for her temporary asylum reforms by conceding on the retrospective application of settlement reforms. A big question about the asylum reforms is what will be effective - or not - in reducing unauthorised arrivals + clearing hotels.

Amazon 💙 🌹🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇺🇦 🇪🇺

27 июл., 18:55

He needs to chuck the policy in the bin along with the Home Secretary AND negotiate with the EU regarding the return of FOM and anything else which will benefit the UK short of rejoining which if possible will take forever…. The Right Wing Racists can all eff off!