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James Austin

Restore on 9% is properly worrying - this is not an area that suits them yet theyre only 3% behind the Greens for third. Implies somewhere in the 8-12% national range for a openly racist party Urgh

James Ball

Restore on just under 9% is uncomfortably high – though is surely also worrying for Reform (21% first preference). Greens surely must be a bit disappointed with 12% of first preferences after their success in Gorton & Denton.

Обсуждение

8 прямых ответов · 24 сообщений

Sailesh

The firewall that once against between the far-right and power is broken… I keep thinking back to 2009 when the BNP were on the rise and were immediately shut down on that QT appearance and by the culture more generally

NG

Could they contest next years locals and win seats? I remember when the BNP winning a single seat in East London was seen as shameful and led the news

Ответ для NG
Matt

Oh easy. For saying Oldham was the home of the BNP, and the North West elected Nick Griffin to the European Parliament after all...

Matt

Feel like you're underestimating how much Oldham and Rochdale actually suit Restore and their particular brand of politics here

Ответ для Matt
Ответ для 🌹
Matt

I'll admit, I was expecting a much larger overperformance in those 3 boroughs, after the 2024 results. 12% in Oldham and 9% across GM is big red flag territory. I was expecting more 15% in Oldham, 9% in GM

Ответ для Matt
James Austin

Yeah, it implies broader reach than I expected.

Matthew Keane

Where do these voters come from? People dont just come racist in two years or 6 months. I suspect some of vote leave in there alongside some radicalised previous non voters.

erikharr

Is it not one of their stronger regions? Nick Griffin got elected as MEP for the North West not that long ago. Think there's clearly ten percent of the region that will vote for an outright fascist in a low turnout election

Ответ для erikharr
James Austin

Yes and no - some parts they'll be strong but you'd expect them to have very little traction in the city itself which Id have thought pulls down their numbers

Antony Barkworth-Knight

It's totally an area that suits them. Oldham riots. Rochdale grooming gang. But agreed greens under performed

Ответ для Antony Barkworth-Knight
James Austin

Those are small bits of GM. Almost 9% across the region implies theyve got into places that dint suit

Ответ для James Austin
Antony Barkworth-Knight

You don't think there's support for restore in Bolton, Wigan and Salford?

Ответ для Antony Barkworth-Knight
James Austin

I do - but not to the level that should get them to 9% across the region

Ответ для James Austin
danielphilips

Do we get a breakdown? There are lots of racists and social media is driving people to them.

Ответ для danielphilips
danielphilips

Also huge in non-league football circles - @jim.londoncentric.media I think has pointed to this link.

Ответ для danielphilips
James Austin

Football lads alliance. That link doesnt suprise me - theyre also all over facebook

Ответ для James Austin
James Austin

(And yeah, there is a borough by borough breakdown, tho ive not dug in yet)

Ответ для James Austin
danielphilips

I can see how suburban Manchester 55 year old football man is going restore.

Jonty

And a number of them will be okay with resorting to violence. Much as I loathe Reform, I think Restore is a lot more dangerous.

James

You can't make that judgement on one place (~4% of UK) voting in a 24% turnout election. Greater Manchester includes Oldham, which gave 12000 votes to the BNP in 2001. And Restore just got 3000 in Makerfield, part of Wigan. Trust the polls on national distribution, not wild speculation.

Ответ для James
James Austin

I dont particularly consider 'actual election results' wild speculation tbh

Ответ для James Austin
James

It's not a representative sample of the country. It's picking a number from the air, there's always local issues. I don't see why you're confident Restore are about the same nationwide. Do you think Labour, Tories, Lib Dems are really about the same nationwide?