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yes absolutely

“Any” is getting into some tricky territory because it’s all context dependent; the answer to the second question is a qualified yes but how much depends on what your MLE inputs are

if anything I felt this was the opposite where they were largely ignoring surface stats

this mf said ststic

Like for example I think Spikerman is a 3 or soft 4 but I also think that if you’re getting a 3 or soft 4 as a second piece in a rental for a RP with a zcon against over 90 that getting the guy who profiles with elite defense is probably better than getting a guy who has a bunch of ststic 4 tools

no he’s not, his zone percentage is identical to last year and his chase percentage is his lowest since 2022

because a median projection of 2027 Huascar Brazoban in his age-37 season is going to be that he’s an up and down guy again? What is he doing that makes you think his talent level has radically changed?

overrating the specific players the Mets have already dealt because of shiny ERAs that were dictated by a mixture of usage and just reliever variance imo

Like, if you’re a buyer, sure, but Toronto is hard selling otherwise?

a lot better than that

Raley is the only guy they *have* to trade in that he’s strictly one year and isn’t a QO candidate, they could plausibly keep everyone else, and may keep some, yes

It’s fine, Garcia is a useful player in a limited role and they’re very good at acquiring these talent profiles cheaply in the amateur market

I like the infrastructure they’ve put in place but it might take another year or two yeah

Side note: Gracie please dear god just have Dan Nigro produce your entire next album

A lot of people will look at Garcia’s 2026 triple-slash and see they got three relievers and an overaged SP prospect with a shitty ERA and just end the analysis there. And that’s fine if you want SABR 2.0 takes. But it isn’t how good baseball teams are run in the mid-2020s anymore

Both the act of doing that and then trading them instead of holding onto them past their trade value expiration date are pretty ballsy and novel ways to break the wheel (amongst many wheels breaking this year for them (complimentary))

The Yankees can afford to trade out if their pitching depth here even as flawed as Garcia is obviously, as I mentioned last week at BP they more or less have a never ending supply of mid-round college arms turned actual prospects

Bird is Bird which means he’s probably immediately a closer candidate given the state of Washington’s bullpen

There are absolutely people, even team people I agree with most of the time, who think Hope’s bat to ball is going to collapse badly. But I’m gonna take a wild guess the team that drafted Bryce Rainer high has a model that loves extreme athletes with that particular brand of hit tool risk

We at the Baseball Prospectus prospect team happen to be on the higher side on Hope and the lower side on Ryan but the Ryan stuff was more “he is too analogous to a foreign league player coming back to continue ranking him as a regular prospect” than “he stinks”