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Jarrett Seidler

Профиль Vively

senior writer @baseballprospectus.com, longtime crank, social circle online circle friend of the show, here more now

it’s basically getting two early day 2 pick values and clearing some salary and I doubt they have anywhere near that kind of investment in it

dantroy

I had low expectations for Minter's trade value, but, given that, is it worth the investment in time to make a deal?

150

this a 40 AB sample of play before a bad shoulder injury and also a 106 max is kinda bad? Like, sure, but if they’d traded for a semi-interesting at draft time slot value 2025 6th rounder who had a different last name nobody would notice or care

jacob817

But isn't a 19 year old with 93 z contact and 15% whiff and a verified 106 max EV who hasn't played much a interesting lottery ticket with uncertainty?

310

A famous R-R high-minors corner guy who isn’t actually good at hitting is the exact directional opposite of a “lottery ticket”

Andrew Reiser

I think it is fine for both teams. Twins give up little to acquire a decent boy and the mets get 2 lottery tickers, one with pop they can see if there is anything there or flip this winter for something else.

230

I don’t think Minter had a lot of trade value at all and I don’t think a sample size of one is super relevant but in general trade form I am not a huge fan of taking on “guys famous from college who can’t actually hit” whether in trade or draft, and well,

260

I've thought this for a long time but very often "industry consensus" is really just "the consensus of the ten most used contacts in my phone"

Jarrett Seidler

it's wild how different my responses asking my team sources about a prospect seem to be from some peerds. And I don't think they're lying about it, but *who* is in your circle of trusted sources and how they/their teams evaluate extremely matters now

0102

it's wild how different my responses asking my team sources about a prospect seem to be from some peerds. And I don't think they're lying about it, but *who* is in your circle of trusted sources and how they/their teams evaluate extremely matters now

160

Jonas Vingegaard to the polls

060

I don't think I can find the article, but the Phillies leaked around last year's deadline that they didn't think it was worth going all in because they'd have to get through the Dodgers likely in the NLDS and then they bought hard anyways and nearly upset them. I think about that a lot

Compasconk kronk

it's only preordained if you make it so, man. Playoff series edges just aren't that big. The best teams don't always win. Again, before 2024, the Dodgers were famous for the budgets and lack of championships. They lost in the NLDS in 2022-23. by your read, the other teams shouldn't have bothered.

3130

do people genuinely think there's some kind of special postseason secret sauce that caused IKF to not slide that is related to a salary cap or

Compasconk kronk

"I live in Cleveland. I work for the people I'm constantly defending, yet I'll be accused of 'licking boots.' anyway, have you noticed how the only parity we see is on account of existing parity provisions? what's that about. I'm smart btw."

1210

the more I think about the paradox of online Mets fandom thinking Stearns is the devil for not constructing a better team but also thinking every player on his roster is too special to be let go the more weirded out I get

4292

I made a lot of people a lot of fucking money off Roman Anthony and Gunnar Henderson baseball cards and dynasty league pickups (along with dozens of other players) and dragging it back into the “consensus” or not reading the text wouldn’t have gotten you home there

ɹǝpuɐxǝlɐ

The funny thing about this approach is that it’s never early on a guy in the way that folks could and did watch Junior Caminero swing a bat once (before his trade to the Rays!) and circle his name These ranks aren’t satisfying as a way to engage with the game or to support a gambling addiction

0100

AI generated prospect lists require human-generated prospect list as inputs but are also very obviously going to kill off many of the jobs for the creatives who generate them, thus guaranteeing that in a few years all you’ll have is *bad* AI slop prospect lists

26116

That fucking rocked so much

050

Turning stage 21 into a miniature Tour of Flanders remains the coolest thing ASO has done in decades

020

“under the hood” analysis is not pulling up the red and blue savant bubbles, that’s the 2026 equivalent of 2016’s add up the WARs

0111

Red Sox fans, if you want to read the definitive story about the prospect rise and fall of your new star (and the more famous trade he was in), I’ve got you covered www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...

Cristopher and Curtis | Baseball ProspectusIt can take a long time to determine the winner of a trade, and a lot can happen in between.www.baseballprospectus.com
050

I think there’s a very big difference between giving up and ejecting out of a guy who you think is cooked after years and years of injuries and talent saps vs. giving up on a guy who has missed a month with elbow inflammation (if you’re positing this as giving up on Early bc of injury)

Matthew Ryan

Is this like the super magnified version of the Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor ward trade but dumber?

150
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