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Yeah a lot of the old establishment tri-county areas (Wayne/Oakland/Macomb) don't really have the juice anymore to get their guys across

The Dem share of primary turnout was 62%. Maybe move it down on your rankings but long shot? No way.

The Shri era going to go down as a very strange one where a guy dumped a ton of money in Detroit for a vanity gubernatorial campaign and turned it into six years in elected office.

A lot of it is Stevens has closer connections to DC (for several reasons) so it's easy to get the DSCC nod of approval, and if you were a Michigan politician you looked at that and said, well if I'm going against the machine I'm endorsing Abdul. He got a lot of state legislature endorsements

From what I heard locally McMorrow did not hire the greatest staff. My impression is that Abdul's staff is closer to average (I think his comms director has done a good job though)

Stevens would have won if she had any normal type of ground game. McMorrow probably wins if the moderates galvanize around her. What a weird race.

One thing is clear, western Michigan is now progressive paradise (a thing that totally holds up if you know the history of the area)

2016 election is never going to die

I wouldn't call Lansing or Grand Rapids white, but yeah Stevens is doing really well in more rural counties

My guess is a lot of this comes down to education and living a more cosmopolitan life. Grew up in Livingston County where Howell was famous for klan activity. Abdul is winning by around five there. Next door more rural Owosso is voting for Stevens by around fourteen.

TBF the map is also one of the strangest I've ever seen. Essentially Abdul is maximizing the votes along major highways and anything rural is going to Haley.

An absolutely insane race where two of the moderate candidates refused to drop out and Lawrence is going to win with around 40% of the vote.

Yeah good money still Abdul with margin 0-3% seems correct

It's for sure going to be a very strange map

Votehub has it at Abdul +8 but I can't imagine Stevens leading in Oakland by two and getting crazy numbers from Wayne

It's also her home county

There are real pros and cons for both. I think the big advantage to AES is turning out some non-traditional voters that will lead to success down ballot (Dems really need to win the state legislature this year).

AES is probably going to win by double digits. Rumor is that Stevens' internals had her down by 14 and that staff were leaking it.

I also think people are overestimating the loyalty that Michigan politicians have towards Stevens. I think that will be the easiest transition.

My guess is a margin of the 15 points or so should do a lot to get most of the rank and file to move on. Certain parties are going to be insufferable for a while though.