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Профиль

Ryan Wiley

Профиль Vively

I like math. I like statistics. I like politics. Posts are my own.

Kornacki called it, it's finally over.

061

They're calling it the "max takes" map:

120

Oh god the margin is going to be under the zombie McMorrow vote.

010

My fault, guys. Didn't consider the scenario where Abdul wins Livingston County by five points but loses Shiawassee by twelve.

030

It's going to be within three points for either side and that's the perfect range of "literally anything could have changed the result"

Will Stancil

If things stay this close, regardless of who wins, we're kind of in the zone of maximum intra-party recriminations. So that's... interesting, let's say. That's interesting

030

I think the fears about Benson are unwarranted. This is smart politics

Andrew Roth

Democratic nominee for governor @jocelynbenson.bsky.social says Michiganders voted "because they are asking us to fight for them, to stand up for them, to fix what's broken for them." "Let's take tonight's landslide victory and let's deliver another one this fall," Benson says.

000

Turns out running no ground game and relying on a bunch of outside money doesn't really work. Shocking.

030

If Oakland County drops are good it's probably a call at nine for Abdul

000

Of course this is the one night Oakland County takes forever to count absentees

000

Lawrence up 22 in that Eaton drop. Almost certainly getting Abdul/Lawrence/McKinney by the end of the night

021

First Eaton drop is really good too. It's probably over.

000

Abdul essentially up to 100% after the Kent early vote drop LOL

010

Taught my daughter to say "capitalism is over" for whenever Abdul is declared the winner tonight

010

It is pretty crazy that the DSCC didn't galvanize around McMorrow last summer/fall

000

Happy "OMG AOC is going to be President" day for everyone celebrating

010

Beyond the obvious conclusion the President is not in his right mind, seems incredibly obvious that his local circle is printing out diffusion model slop to get whatever policy they want out of the President. Watergate-level scandal every day.

Josh Marshall

Absolutely had to check this one because it couldn’t be real. It’s real.

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