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Профиль

Nicolai von Ondarza

Профиль Vively

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Senior Fellow in Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.

Now entering European summer mode and will be back here in three weeks. Enjoy your summer everyone!

2190

Days like today really show the differences between bluesky and X. Checking on X, everyone, even the moderate voices I still follow there are talking about Ceuta and a new 'migration crisis'. Here, very little discussion even amongst those posting on EU politics.

5226

Well, this is quite something: All 55 UEFA member associations threaten to boycott the next FIFA World Cup if Infantinos plans go through. This seem like the biggest European revolt against something Trump connected so far:

Fifa World Cup: Uefa to boycott tournament if Gianni Infantino's investment plans go throughUefa will boycott Fifa's tournaments if investment proposals from world football's governing body president Gianni Infantino go through.www.bbc.com
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The real problem is, though, that much of LinkedIn sounded like AI slop well before the current gen ai was invented.

Tits McGee

Oh my God, this is not a drill - LinkedIn has added 'seems like AI slop' as an option on posts Genuinely thought it was a joke until I clicked on a few posts

2285

Andy Burnham definitely has managed a much better start than Keir Starmer. It has been a long while since the UK public actually had a favourable view of their PM. Also note the downfall of Farage, who seems to be really hurt by his scandals:

Luke Tryl

Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32

1253

As Andy Burnham today makes his first major defence announcement, on the nuclear deterrent, really noteworthy that for him defence always has a domestic element: After 'keeping the country safe', the main benefit he stresses are the jobs + apprenticeships being created to 'reindustrialise Britain'

4151

Very good update on how the PiS split is impacting the EU level - Morawiecki has now officially withdrawn as ECR President, but the FdI will only take over until a succession from within the PiS is elected as ECR President.

Eddy Wax

www.euractiv.com/news/polish-... How the Law & Justice break-up is impacting Brussels | Paging @nvondarza.bsky.social

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One continuous feature of EU-UK relations since Brexit is that the combination of Brussels' August and UK party conference season in September/October have pushed back important meetings. As a UK outsider, in practice though the party conferences never justified to me long postponements.

David Phinnemore

"Officials on both sides have, however, said they expect the [EU-UK Summit] to be held in October or November to dodge the summer break, the U.N. General Assembly, and the Labour Party conference." www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...

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Very telling research on the rise of self-published books with substantial AI text - which on their own earn less than 'regular' books, but together seem to earn their 'authors' substantial and are thus crowding out the market for others:

Tuhin Chakrabarty

🚨 New paper on AI & Copyright Using @pangram.com full-text AI detection, we study self-published genre fiction on Amazon, 2023–26. Amazon is flooded w/ books with substantial AI text. They earn real 💰 & crowd out non-AI books. w/ @dhillonp.bsky.social @xinyuel.bsky.social & Jane Ginsburg (1/n) 🧵

1128

Oh no. Have to admit, the AI speak of 'it's not X, it's Y" is one that is triggering me strongly, and I have now seen it also creep into German political communication. One of the biggest 'this is AI' red flag at the moment.

John Feminella

Hypothesis: The "it's not X, it's Y" pattern that LLMs are so fond of outputting can be traced back to a single, very prevalent phrase in the training data:

0102

Fun graph by the EU Commission on the length of summer holidays in the EU. To be frank, as a parent, even the six weeks in Germany feel long. How are parents supposed to bridge 14 weeks of summer holiday?

126315

Two observations: First, good to see UK participation in the EU's €90bn loan to Ukraine finalised - unlike SAFE, this went smoothly, and enables both UK financial contribution and Ukraine purchases of UK military equipment counting as 'European':

16710

The 'Burnham bounce' seems to be real, at least in short-term. This is the first poll lead for Labour at least for a year, and as far as I remember also the first time in more than a year Reform UK is not leading a UK poll.

Luke Tryl

Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7

0102

Update on this by @eddywax.bsky.social: Looks like senior FdI MEP Fidanza will become interim president of the ECR, while three PiS MEPs have left the party with Morawiecki. It remains open whether they will also be pushed out of the ECR.

Nicolai von Ondarza

This will also have repercussions on the European level - Morawiecki, who has just been expelled, is the head of the European Conservative and Reformer (ECR) party, the party that brings together PiS, Meloni's FdI and other national conversatives across the EU.

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Today early voting starts in the referendum in Iceland on whether to resume EU accession talks, with full voting done on 29 August. I know very little about Iceland's politics, but all polls I have seen point to a very close result. (But hey, the 52-48 ratio has history in referenda on the EU):

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Horrifying, but very vivid illustration of the 'kill zone' between Ukrainian and Russian forces amid many drones:

Inside Ukraine’s Kill ZoneDrones now dominate the war in Ukraine. Fly through the front line’s deadly “kill zone” and discover how surveillance, kamikaze drones and new tactics are reshaping modern warfare. An immersive Reuter...www.reuters.com
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This will also have repercussions on the European level - Morawiecki, who has just been expelled, is the head of the European Conservative and Reformer (ECR) party, the party that brings together PiS, Meloni's FdI and other national conversatives across the EU.

413044

This is new and completely wierd. To proof that I am not an AI, cloudflare now wants me to enter something in the terminal, of unknown origin. Sorry, no way.

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