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AES on track to ~3 pt win, polls had him at around 12-14 pts. That's a really big poll miss, like bigger than we saw in swing states in 2020 and bigger than the misses in last year's Gov races. However primary polling being that off isn't that shocking. Average primary miss can be as high as 12 pts

I agree with this take over on Twitter/X, the woman was a walking Veep parody and she still had a very respectable showing

I'll help her out, start heading towards AES'

Polling continues to be our best gauge of public opinion and had a great 2024. 2025 off-year misses were thanks to pollsters weighting to 2024 results. Primary polling has always had a much larger margin of error compared to general polling and tends to be where you see the biggest upsets.

This is my chance to point out that some Michigan pollsters were warning and pointing out about past big misses in the state. Bernie in the 2016 primary, Whitmer in the 2022 general come to mind. Some MI pollsters were assuming an electorate that was different then things they saw in the past.

I actually agree. Both Stevens and AES are unimpressive candidates to me, but McMorrow got squeezed out by finding herself trying to balance both sides of the spectrum.

Do not look up that Perez Hilton video if you're extra sensitive to self harm content. Jesus Christ. The man was clearly going through some kind of mental meltdown.

This week's podcast episode is now out! #SpiderManBrandNewDay, more #ChildrenOfBloodAndBone drama, yet another #GoldenGlobes scandal, Jared Leto allegations, Mike Leigh retiring, Glen Hansard’s passing, & a personal note on post-partum depression: 🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/podcast15

The Public Has Spidey Fever | MMR Podcast #15The Mendez Movie Report Podcast For The Week Of 08.04.2026www.mendezmoviereport.com

If the report Stevens' pollster told her she has no path to victory is correct, I'll point to the sign again:

Top 4 are good, rest are forgettable-to-mid. 'Tom Jones' would be my pick for the worst BP winner.

You can now read my belated written review for #SpiderManBrandNewDay; a movie I liked on its own terms, but had some uneven feelings about when it came to the larger stuff around it: 🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/spiderman4

Film Review: Spider-Man - Brand New DayA Brand New Day Starts Nowwww.mendezmoviereport.com

There are potential candidate quality issues for Ds in MI Senate and WI Gov, but other than that I'm feeling pretty good that they crack 230+ house seats and put up a real fight in the Senate. Unless something changes soon, Trump will be the most unpopular a Prez was coming into an e-day since 08.

This place is pretty useless for talking movies compared to X, so I may as well post more political stuff on here. In 2024 I got called a doomer for pointing out how toxically bad the environment was for Dems. Now its midterm time and my bullishness on a decent blue wave is bound to annoy someone.

Inhale the hopium. Ride the poll-a-coaster. It historically helps turnout more than dooming. Less people show up if they think their candidate is gonna' lose. Ask Georgia Rs during the 2020 runoffs.

When it comes to Haley Stevens' likely loss in the MI primary next week, so many will talk DSA, Israel, and anti-establishment vibes, but I cannot overstate enough what an awkward and cringe campaigner the woman is. Like, that's gotta' be the reason her past electoral performances are so "eh"

This week's podcast episode is now up! I talk about my current outlook on the #Oscars Best Picture race, Paramount's merger troubles, #SDCC having its best showing in years, Kaylee Hottle's tragic and sudden passing, and more: 🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/podcast14

Summer 2026 Blockbuster Season Oscars Projections | MMR Podcast #14The Mendez Movie Report Podcast For The Week Of 07.28.2026www.mendezmoviereport.com

This is insane, I thought for sure we'd see this trend finally end after this weekend but #TheOdyssey's audience numbers *are still* going higher. The movie has been out for a little over a week now. Its climbed into #54 at IMDb and is now at 4.40 on LB

I generally enjoy Mona Charen's podcast, but today's show with Thomas Edsall disgusted me. A lot of bigoted anti-trans bullsh*t being spouted by Edsall. I had to turn it off just a few minutes in.

Now that #TheOdyssey is out I've updated my Best Picture race outlook for the #Oscars. The movie has proven itself to me to remain as the one to beat, however this race is far from over and the fall festivals will be here before you know it: 🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/99oscars03

99th Oscars Projections: Summer Blockbuster Season UpdateA Look During The Summer Blockbuster Season At The Best Picture Race Outlook For The 99th Academy Awardswww.mendezmoviereport.com

Re-watched A SOLDIER'S STORY this morning and good lord is Adolph Caesar a powerhouse in it. Denzel's big breakthrough, too. The movie has gone on to be well received but not beloved, but its personally one of my absolute favs from 84. R.I.P Howard Ellsworth Rollins.