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Burnham Down The House

I’m gonna lose leftist cred for this, but I think McMorrow would’ve won this primary 60/40 over either candidate

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11 прямых ответов · 21 сообщений

Democat

Same

Dunkin’ Idaho

She played her hand poorly, but yes

Meatwad Ron: Summer of Ron

I’m so confused by this take because she literally ran in this primary? And no one wanted to vote for her?

Ответ для Meatwad Ron: Summer of Ron
Burnham Down The House

Ideology is a spectrum; McMorrow didn't gain bc she got squeezed by both sides, and the position she occupied had to go somewhere else. But if it were McMorrow vs. either, she wins.

Ответ для Burnham Down The House
Meatwad Ron: Summer of Ron

If Lis Smith never works again after this it will have been an acceptable sacrifice

Ответ для Meatwad Ron: Summer of Ron
saudades

she only fails upwards it's intense

Sardonic Sardine

And not made the other candidate’s voters nauseous if she won.

Siebznet

I agree with this - I thought she was going to run away with it as of last Christmas, and even my former AES staffer cousin-in-law agreed with me at the time.

payne588

I don't know about 60/40, but I've had the feeling for months that she would likely win in a 2-way race.

CK☕⚽🇺🇦

Well, she didn't sooooooo...

Gluten-free Seitan

Median Democrat theorem

Burnham Down The House

I call it as I see it, if we had RCV McMorrow probably stays in and may have even won, can’t believe it. Her polls only went down bc people thought she couldn’t beat either in FPTP

Ответ для Burnham Down The House
Keith

I think under RCV, she still gets got by the center-squeeze effect. Everyone's agreed #2 is still the first round elimination. Would probably need Approval Voting in order to stay live.

Ответ для Keith
A
abbyannv

How would approval voting have worked better for her than RCV. Would you need a 4th candidates for her to win in an RCV world?

Ответ для abbyannv
Keith

No, a 4th candidate with few votes wouldn't make a difference. The problem is if Stevens and AES basically hog all the first-rank votes (say 40% each), then McMorrow with the remaining 20%, gets elim'ed before either of them. Doesn't matter if she was the universal 2nd rank choice.

Center squeeze - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
Ответ для Keith
A
abbyannv

I ask, because it looked like RCV worked well in the Maine Gubernatorial primary. 3 similar people kind of split the vote, and Shah had the most in the first round, but I think way more people will be happy with Pingree. fairvote.org/analyzing-ma...

Analyzing Maine’s primary results: Voter behavior, consensus winners, and the impact of cross-endorsements - FairVoteThe Maine Secretary of State’s office has released the cast vote record from the state’s ranked choice voting primary elections on June 9.fairvote.org
Ответ для Keith
thepowerbroker

I don't know if I believe it, but it's plausible that RCV means she runs a different, specifically down the middle campaign. W FPTP she he had to run hard in *A* direction trying to knock *someone* out while still keeping some mod cred which, when unsuccessful, leaves you out in the cold.

Ответ для Burnham Down The House
🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟

She’s probably the Condorcet winner but perfectly possible she doesn’t win RCV

Ответ для 🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟
Burnham Down The House

it's impossible to say, but if there were ranked-choice she stays in and maybe gets late momentum like Hannah Pingree as a consensus choice.

davidfriendpiano

Ummmm… except she literally ran in this race and dropped out for total lack of support 🤷‍♂️