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I am incredibly thankful for the support and trust of my readers over the last two years, and I look forward to what comes next. If you want to stay informed on missile-related events in the world, you can subscribe or upgrade your membership here: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe 5/5

Subscribe to Missile Matters — with Fabian HoffmannMissile Matters is my personal blog, where I share insights on the latest developments in the nuclear and missile domains in Ukraine and beyond. If Putin decides to nuke us all, you will read about ...missilematters.substack.com

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The work also stays independent: no sponsors, no advertisers, just analysis funded by readers. Part of the blog stays free. All reactive analysis (initial strike assessments, BDAs, commentary on breaking missile-related news) will continue to arrive at no cost. 3/5

The reason is simple. The posts that resonate most (missile production estimates, market assessments, defense-industrial analyses) require days of research. As the blog is increasingly used as a professional resource, paid subscriptions allow me to do more of this work. 2/5

The campaign also cuts against Russian society's image of itself as powerful, protected, and untouchable. Whenever serious talks over a post-war order begin, the missile will be on the table. Russia will negotiate with the Ukrainian state the missile made. 5/5

A state that can hold an adversary's economy at risk at will occupies a different category of actorhood in the international system. Ukraine has turned from a coerced state into a coercing one. 4/5

Charles Tilly famously argued that war made the state and the state made war. Ukraine suggests a contemporary variant. Sovereign deep strike at this scale confers what Schelling called the power to hurt. 3/5

Between 18 and 24 July, Ukrainian drones struck several Wildberries logistics hubs. Russian analysts estimate the economic damage at up to 1.3 billion USD. The attritional logic of Ukraine's deep-strike campaign is familiar. The constitutive effect is less discussed. 2/5

Ja, absolut. Deutsches VLS-Management war und ist absolut katastrophal.

I will say that the case for naval Tomahawks is much stronger than the land-based version. But as far as I understand, and unless plans have changed, this sale remains focused on the Typhon system. 2/2

Cadence appears to be accelerating. The last three confirmed attacks occurred roughly 2.5 weeks apart, compared with an average of 4.5 weeks. Uncertainties around engine supply and accuracy remain, but the gap between claims and performance may have narrowed. 5/5

Across the ten confirmed use cases since August 2025, Flamingo targeting has narrowed toward Russia's missile production base, including the Votkinsk, VNIIR-Progress, and Titan-Barrikady plants. Volleys remain small, at most six missiles per strike. 4/5

It is the first confirmed case in which several Flamingos unambiguously impacted within the target area. In virtually all previous cases, at most one missile scored a hit. Several hits per strike are critical for disrupting larger facilities. 3/5

Three of five FP-5 Flamingos struck the facility on the night of 26 to 27 June. Titan-Barrikady is a key site in the assembly of Iskander-M launchers and supports Russian strategic missile programs, including the RS-24 Yars ICBM. 2/5

Yeah, I agree

But this also means that Ukraine very likely continues to have Flamingo available only in rather limited numbers, and FirePoint is producing nowhere near the "3 per day" number. If you are interested in the analysis published tomorrow morning, you can subscribe here: missilematters.substack.com

Missile Matters — with Fabian Hoffmann | SubstackMissile Matters is my personal blog, where I share insights on the latest developments in the nuclear and missile domains in Ukraine and beyond. If Putin decides to nuke us all, you will read about ...missilematters.substack.com

Somewhat peculiar, as you would think, hitting this type of infrastructure with a 1,000+ kg warhead and at a higher speed than long-range drones would be absolutely devastating. The likely answer is that Ukraine prioritizes Flamingo missiles for defense-industrial targets. 2/3

The new dynamism these actors bring to the European ballistic missile defense market is welcome in itself, even if their ultimate success remains to be seen. 5/5

The economics are compelling in principle. A PAC-3 MSE costs ~$7M per unit. Achieving 80-95% intercept probability per engagement requires 2-3 shots: $14-21M per incoming missile. A $1M interceptor can undercut that curve at much lower individual intercept probabilities. 4/5

New entrants Frankenburg Technologies and Ukraine's FirePoint are seeking to exploit this gap with lower-cost, mass-producible interceptors optimized for mass salvo warfare from the outset. 3/5