I cover elections at The Writ (http://thewrit.ca), The Numbers (http://thenumberspod.ca) and Les chiffres (http://leschiffres.ca) Follow me on YouTube: http://youtube.com/@TheWrit
A deep dive into the three byelections, and why the Carney majority is NOT at stake on Aug. 31. www.thewrit.ca/p/weekly-wri...
Weekly Writ 7/30: Liberal majority not at stake in byelections, not yet (and not likely soon)The trio of byelections will not impact Mark Carney's majority.www.thewrit.caThis week, we try to make some sense of new polls that have the Liberals leading by very different amounts. Plus, we break down the trio of byelections set for Aug. 31. Join here to watch/listen to the episode right away, ad-free! thenumberspod.ca/posts/just-h...
Just how big is the Liberal lead, really? (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffresNew polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot? This week on The Nuthenumberspod.caWe decided our podcast wasn't nerdy enough already, so of course we had an astronomy/politics quiz show. Join here to watch the whole thing: thenumberspod.ca
A quick update to the projection, plus where things stand in the three byelections: www.thewrit.ca/p/seat-proje...
Seat Projection: Liberals 210, Conservatives 93Federal Projection Update for July 28, 2026.www.thewrit.caThe Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 44.8% (🔼0.6 since last week) / 210 seats (🔼7) CON🔵 34.9% (🔻0.6) / 93 (🔻6) NDP🟠 10.4% (🔼0.1) / 16 (=) BQ💠 6.0% (🔻0.2) / 22 (🔻1) GRN🟢 2.1% (🔼0.1) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat ProjectionsWhat would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?www.thewrit.caTime to turn the tables on Philippe with a politics and astronomy themed Quiz! How well does Philippe know his stars and planets, and just how many Martian years has Mark Carney been prime minister anyway? Join the Patreon to watch or listen to this special episode: thenumberspod.ca/posts/when-p...
When politics and the stars align (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffresPhilippe has been pretty tough with his quizzes, so it's finally time to turn the tables — and look to the stars. In this members-only episothenumberspod.caI take a look at the what the polls say about Canadians' perceptions of the US, their attitude toward new negotiations, and who they trust to handle Trump: www.thewrit.ca/p/weekly-wri...
Weekly Writ 7/23: Carney, Trump and tariffsMore than a year after Trump's first tariff threats, Canadians still want to put up a fight.www.thewrit.caThis week on The Numbers, we break down the national polling landscape in the context of another round of tariffs from Donald Trump. Plus, MB byelection, BC/AB polling and an extended mailbag segment available for members. Join here to listen: thenumberspod.ca/posts/will-t...
Will Trump's new tariffs move the polls? (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffresAn otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tthenumberspod.caOn average (and taking into account potential polling errors and the number of toss-ups), the Liberals win 196 seats, with 114 going to the Conservatives, 20 to the Bloc, 12 to the NDP and one to the Greens. www.thewrit.ca/p/liberals-l...
Liberals lead by nine in projection updateFederal Projection Update for July 21, 2026.www.thewrit.caThe Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 44.2% (🔼0.1 since last week) / 203 seats (🔻2) CON🔵 35.5% (🔼0.5) / 99 (🔼1) NDP🟠 10.3% (🔻0.6) / 16 (=) BQ💠 6.2% (🔼0.2) / 23 (🔼1) GRN🟢 2.0% (🔼0.1) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat ProjectionsWhat would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?www.thewrit.caAlberta Referendum Poll Tracker updated: 🍁Remain: 69% (+2 since June) 🛡️Independence: 23% (unchanged) ❓Undecided: 9% (-2) Full breakdown and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/alberta-re...
Alberta Referendum Poll TrackerTracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19.www.thewrit.caOne poll and one byelection later, could the Greens actually be the favourites to win government in PEI next year? www.thewrit.ca/p/weekly-wri...
Weekly Writ 7/16: Could the Greens make a run at government in PEI?Plus another poll in Nova Scotia adds to the confusion.www.thewrit.caThe latest episode of The Numbers is out in early, ad-free release for Patreon members! We start with a mea culpa and wonder what the butterfly effect of a PEI byelection could be. Plus, we break down new federal and NS polls and the Quiz returns: thenumberspod.ca/posts/maybe-...
Maybe we were wrong? (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffresWe’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s byelection in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bthenumberspod.caNot much new data to work with, but what is out there puts the Liberals down to their lowest level since February in the projection. I delve into what's behind it. Is it a blip or a trend? www.thewrit.ca/p/tracking-p...
Tracking polls push Liberals to lowest level since FebruaryFederal Projection Update for July 14, 2026.www.thewrit.caThe Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 44.1% (🔻0.5 since last week) / 205 seats (🔻5) CON🔵 35.0% (🔼0.1) / 98 (🔼4) NDP🟠 10.9% (🔼0.6) / 16 (🔼1) BQ💠 6.0% (🔻0.1) / 22 (=) GRN🟢 1.9% (🔻0.1) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat ProjectionsWhat would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?www.thewrit.caThis week, we breakdown a Conservative MP's jump to the Senate and what it means for an upcoming byelection. Plus, we delve into a new poll that shows that many Canadians do not know some of their political leaders. This episode also includes a members-only mailbag: thenumberspod.ca/posts/new-le...
New leader, who dis? (VIDEO) | The Numbers / Les chiffresDon’t you know who I am? For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggthenumberspod.caBreaking down Richard Martel's move to the Senate and what it means for the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. Plus, much more in this (unpaywalled!) instalment of the Weekly Writ! www.thewrit.ca/p/weekly-wri...
Weekly Writ 7/9: Martel's Senate appointment means high-stakes byelection to comeChicoutimi—Le Fjord was a three-way race in 2025. Will it be a three-way race again in 2026?www.thewrit.caThe appointment of Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate means there will be a byelection in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. Can the Liberals (or Bloc) flip it, or will the Conservatives be able to hold? www.thewrit.ca/p/can-the-li...
Can the Liberals flip Chicoutimi—Le Fjord?Federal Projection Update for July 7, 2026.www.thewrit.caThe Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 44.6% (🔻0.4 since last week) / 210 seats (🔻3) CON🔵 34.9% (🔼0.3) / 94 (🔼2) NDP🟠 10.3% (🔼0.5) / 15 (=) BQ💠 6.1% (🔼0.2) / 22 (🔼1) GRN🟢 2.0% (🔻0.3) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat ProjectionsWhat would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?www.thewrit.ca