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Ok yes, wrong word. I didnt mean stylistically

It's very good. I think the point could have been made even more strongly because you don't need the 2008 housing analogy. Exactly this dynamic took place in the telecom and cable bust which happened shortly after the dot com.

Yeah it did strike me that the dotcom vs subprime comparison was too stark. There are elements of both

People are lazy I guess. I much prefer human output, especially because it is usually shorter 🤣

well yes, it has clearly been edited by AI. But I try to look past that now... the substance is great

I'm slow to this, but here is a beautiful piece on the dynamics of the AI buildout and how they could flip into reverse. Wish I had written it tbh www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-second...

So far Warsh is all stepovers, like Ronaldo in the early days

You think you’re Maradona but maybe you’re Nani

The GDP data were another reminder that a lot of America's AI boom leaks into the RoW via rising imports. Its like a huge fiscal stimulus with a really crap multiplier

they have been weirdly (for them) explicit about this. They are basically offering the govt a Rubinomics-style deal

My read of the UK economy is so different to the Bank's. The evidence says rates should be 100bps lower. Its only past errors and the BoE's fear of second-round effects - not based on any actual data - that has them in a totally different place

And now we have Bailey reading from a table of oil prices. F*** my life 🤣

BoE gives us 9 different versions of forward guidance, while Warsh wont even answer simple questions about stuff that has already happened. Cant we find some happy medium? OMG is the ECB *it*?! 🤣

he didnt seem like the type to take constructive criticism well

For most of my life I didnt know any other Darios. So you can forgive me slight panic when I get emails like this:

thats the part I struggle with. What is the lesson? To deliberately mislead the market... its a bizarre analogy and yet everyone nods sagely when you discuss it

The whole construct is nonsense. A somewhat benevolent view of markets is that they are the risk managers for society. Central banks are the monetary policymakers for society. We're on the same team!

everyone is citing "Maradona central banking". But Mervyn King had a deep disdain for markets. In his analogy, the market was a hapless England defender, falling at the feet of central-banker genius. Warsh is saying the opposite - that markets are omniscient

How come you can criticise Trichet, Bailey, Lagarde etc and nobody ever calls you "political". But when its a Fed official things are different?

And who was in bed with organised crime 🤣