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HALEY THAT WASN'T A SERIOUS SUGGESTION

IL-09 and CA-11

FWIW the commonality in the 2016 and 2018 misses was that the Detroit candidate did worse than polls showed, but that could just be coincidence.

There haven't been too many statewide primaries in Michigan with lefty candidates to judge. Polls missed for Bernie in 2016 but were dead on in 2020. In 2018 polls showed massive undecideds right until the end, but were pretty accurate in the Whitmer-Adbul margin; the error was overstating Thanedar.

It turns out insurance companies believe in climate change whether you do or not

It's complicated - the state party endorsement is an official designation from the state party, but the way it gets decided isn't by any vested powerful interests but by a convention that anyone can go to. It's more like a pre-primary caucus than anything.

A lot of it I think comes down to the issues that drove that election 20 years ago not being very relevant to the governor's office; meanwhile the fights he's picking with his own party now are over things that no one was asking him about in 2006 like income tax, housing policy, and labor rights

They just blocked me, you may or may not be

It's also just patently absurd if you actually look at their policy proposals. Elliott's signature plan is to tax income above $1 mil/yr, which Lamont opposes. They've spent a lot of time debating this, including at the actual debate. It would take a lot of effort to not notice that.

Invoking policy proposals is such a telling move when both candidates involved have years of voting records, and a major story of the campaign is how Lamont keeps vetoing bills that Elliott sends him. Clearly they disagree on something!

I understand you're probably in the "exiting the electorate soon" cohort and thus have little incentive to understand this, but the size of one group relative to another can change without requiring either group disappearing completely

That would speed up the process, but the slow march of time pushing people in and out of the electorate is the big takeaway here

Did they? Boomers were 29-57 in 1992, and that's the only age cohort Clinton didn't totally dominate in. (The columns here are Clinton, Bush, Perot) ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-v...

Boomers were close for both Reagan and Bush, but in fairness they also barely voted for Trump. The generational cohort he does best with is Xers.

Here's How Stevens Can Fix This by Getting Even More Racist

emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-202... NEW Emerson College Poll, MI Dem Primary Abdul El-Sayed: 54% Haley Stevens: 39% Among Leaners El-Sayed: 57(!)% Stevens: 41% Voters under fifty: El-Sayed + 50(!)% Voters over fifty: Stevens + 12

Pelosi I included because Sacramento's in her backyard, but the other two have gotten involved in a lot of primaries this year. I understand the one who's actually spending is HMP and not Jeffries, but like, come on he's not uninvolved with their decisions.

This post got some traction while I was asleep, so if you have friends in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Connecticut, New Hampshire, or parts of Massachusetts, or Hawaii, bug them to support their local progressive in the coming elections.

Whoops! Yeah, looks like he's been up on TV since he got public financing a couple weeks ago bsky.app/profile/hank...

Believe it or not, the counterculture of the 60s was counter to the culture of the time. Boomers voted for Trump... and also Bush, Reagan and Nixon because they were always a more conservative cohort bsky.app/profile/riva...