Подтвердите e-mail

Для публикаций, комментариев, реакций и сообщений подтвердите адрес.

Профиль

acemaxx analytics

Профиль Vively

macro economics, charts, books, short interviews, Alumni University of St. Gallen, Switzerland https://acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/

The official #unemployment rate has become a much less informative indicator than it was 30y or 40y ago b/c labour markets have changed structurally, chart @EU_eurostat ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web...

131

#Germany #Rhine drought strands ships and forces #German production shutdowns Crucial trade #river near its lowest level in 8y as #temperatures head towards 40C, chart @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/e5cb...

000

#IMF says: #Deficit countries should reduce fiscal deficits strengthen public finances, increase domestic saving … #Surplus countries should stimulate domestic consumption, allow exchange rates to adjust … chart #IMF News www.imf.org/en/blogs/art...

100

The American economy slowed in the 2Q2026, expanding at an annual rate of 1.5% as the war with #Iran upended prices, supply chains and #energy markets, chart @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/b...

100

(note to self) Why didn't #BoJ simply raise rates? b/c #Japan faces a difficult trade-off. Higher interest rates would: strengthen the yen. But they would also: increase debt-service costs on #Japan's public debt ..., chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/fin...

110

#FX USD JPY FX traders are skeptical about #yen long-term, chart @bloomberg.com TV live 1y risk reversals are historically #bearish for JPY.

100

#doodle on #mute #KevinWarsh ‘s #Fed hush!

000

#Fed rate hike bets adjust: The implied probability of a Fed rate hike in Sept 2026: 61.8%, chart @bloomberg.com TV live

000

#Japan ’s finance minister warned last week that the authorities stood ready to take “appropriate and bold action” after the “yen fell past ¥163 to the dollar for the first time in 40y, chart @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/8455...

110

#FX The #yen surged by more than 3% against the US dollar, marking its biggest jump since Dec 2023 and stoking speculation that #Japanese officials again intervened in the market, chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

100

#Fed Funds rate and expectations, chart #JPMorganAM

000

Soumaya Keynes' @financialtimes.com op-ed is more nuanced than a simple call for protectionism. She argues that #UK 's service-oriented economy, remaining manufacturing niches, and current policy stance leave it less exposed to #China 's export surge than many peers: www.ft.com/content/0ed8...

100

#existing and #pending #home sales fell sharply in 2022 largely due to record high #mortgage rates and have remained soft ever since, chart #JPMorganAM

000

#China Prof. Michael #Pettis (must-read) FX appreciation is just one of several tools — wage growth, social transfers, tax cuts for households, weaker industrial subsidies — that all do the same basic thing: shift income from producers/the state toward households -

100

Despite surging US corporate #profit growth and ebullience over #AI spending, US household #sentiment remains relatively subdued, charts @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/us-...

100

US #borrowing costs hit the highest level since 2007 after the #Fed held rates steady, underscoring fears that the CB will not be able to contain the inflationary shock from Donald Trump’s #Iran #war - chart @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/5c8a...

000

US 5y5y #inflation #swaps (white line): 2.41% versus 30y UST yield (blue line): 5.23%, chart @bloomberg.com TV live

120
Показать ещё