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I wrote about the NBA’s increasingly stupid analytics vs. eye test conversation: www.theringer.com/2026/08/03/n...

How Did the NBA Analytics Discourse Get So Stupid?The aftermath of the Jaylen Brown trade exposed the fallacy of the analytics vs. eye test debatewww.theringer.com
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20 прямых ответов · 47 сообщений

This piece rules. Thanks for saying what needed to be said. JB is awesome and it sucks watching a bunch of people talk about him like he's Cam Thomas. I hope he has a true revenge tour next year

Fantastic article! Quantitative vs. qualitative data has always been a flashpoint in analytics and even more so modernly due to the vast amounts of data we have. Relying on one or the other doesn’t get the job done though. You need both.

analytics versus feel is the eternal argument that never ends

analytics versus feel is the eternal argument that never ends

wait...Atkinson said White is a top 5 player? Is he high?

This is really, really good. I look forward to part two, but also: "I could probably write a dissertation on this Russian nesting doll of a star"- yes please

I really like the section on the challenges of defensive metrics. I still think we underestimate the cost of having to scheme to cover for a bad defender.

I find nba analytics fascinating because the fluid nature of the game makes it hard to measure. This makes for an interesting challenge, but also means the resulting metrics range from complex to convoluted, and putting them in context gets hard even for people who understand the underlying math.

Derrik White is so interesting. I get he's beloved for his impact, but a top-5 player in the league?. If you had a team of only Derrik Whites, could you get out of the 1st round? Someone has to collapse and/or stretch the defense. Someone has to get off-ball defenders to turn their heads.

Ответ для Argle-Bargler

To do that well at an NBA level is hard. White, like Draymond, is really hard to categorize. Green and White two of the most "you had to be there" and "you have to really know basketball" players we have ever seen. Who else is on this list? Also, is there an all-last-name-is-a-color team?

Ответ для Argle-Bargler

Assuming Draymond got the opportunity (remember he was a 2nd round pick playing behind David Lee) on another team, would he even be Draymond? I don't think Green or White are having the same career without the opportunity on the right team. Imagine if Ayton was drafted by the Wizards.

Ответ для Argle-Bargler

YEAH. @michaelvpina.bsky.social Can we get some clarification on this part of the article? If Derrik White was traded to Portland and all of his numbers dropped, would the nerds understand it is the result of added responsibilities on a worse team, or would they call it "a slump" and blame his age?

Ответ для rukuss

i’m not exactly sure what you mean, but derrick white is very good and the blazers would probablybe a lot better if he was on their team

Ответ для Michael Pina

The article makes it sound like Boston could afford to lose Brown more than they could afford to lose White. Are we honestly living in a world where analytics believes Derrick White can lead a team to the playoffs? Love Derrick White, as my 4th best player.

Ответ для rukuss

that is the reality we’re living in

Ответ для Michael Pina

So we're saying Tatum + White > Tatum + Brown?

Ответ для rukuss

maybe? there are so many variables at play here and that question is not how building a basketball team works!

Ответ для Michael Pina

My understanding is building a basketball team requires a #1 option, a #2 option, and role players. Derrick White is a role player who occasionally dabbles as a #2. Jaylen Brown is a #2 who can be a #1 on certain nights/situations. You need a #1 and a #2 before the role players matter.....

Ответ для Michael Pina

Just a clarification, since you get access to that community, are they saying White is analytically one of the best at his role, position and for his salary or that he is just better than Brown straight up? Cause that is insane.

Ответ для Beeso

i think white has a greater impact on winning, and is easier to fit on any team, around any type of player, in any system. what he does is harder to find. jaylen is also an incredible player who would never have been traded if he made 20% of the cap

Ответ для Michael Pina

How can you have a greater impact on winning when the other team isn't game-planning against you? Raja Bell and Bruce Bowen impacted winning, unless they had to be a primary ball handler and scorer. Are we erasing the Spurs 20-21 season where White was losing minutes to Murray?

Excellent article, Michael, I thoroughly enjoyed reading it.

Ответ для Stephen Will

thank you, stephen!

Ответ для Michael Pina
Ответ для Michael Pina
Ответ для Michael Pina

I find the war between the two groups so weird. Surely they are both tools to help your team win, not something that fights against each other. Likewise beefs between FO and coaching, like isn’t the goal the same??

While I think trades involve more than just play and stats including financials, I think about Korver vs Curry in 2015. Korver shot .487 from 3s with all analytics in his favor. Fans knew he was option 4 while Curry is always doubleteamed. He dropped to .355 in the post-season when Ds focused on him

My guess of the Jaylen Brown all-stars: Melo, Dominique, paolo are locks. Joe Johnson? Glenn Robinson? And because you probably don’t want all forwards will mix in Andre Drummond and Allen iverson. Maybe Trae.

Ответ для dmcuse44

only active players and didn’t do it positionally! but love this list

Reminds of the war between the Boozer Bros and Dybantsa Heads

“To those who pray at the altar of buckets, Brown’s sainthood application was officially accepted sometime last year.” Amen

Ответ для Bird

Pina fuckin rules.

Enjoyed the piece, but you barely covered Brown's biggest issue: the one which most tanks his offensive and defensive analytics metrics. He's a turnover machine. He led the Association (And as a Cavs fan I love this even though Harden's led the league in that category five times). That's not nuance.

Ответ для Cavs: the Blog

i mentioned!

Ответ для Michael Pina

That was the "barely" part. My point is that it has a outsized impact on his on/off analytics. I mean I'm thrilled with it. I am hoping for spectacular failure in Philly.

Ответ для Cavs: the Blog

it’s a factor, for sure. most aren’t live ball and occur when he’s trying to score, which is obviously less detrimental. more generally i wasn’t trying to spend too much time breaking brown’s game down, just highlighting why he’s so divisive

Ответ для Michael Pina

I get that. Just a quibble. Writing is choices. You just made different ones than I would, which isn't a bad thing. Enjoyed the piece.

"According to math, just about any shot Brown takes that isn’t a dunk will be less efficient than a catch-and-shoot corner 3 by Sam Hauser." That's why FGA is an important stat to me. Brown can get up 20 shots in any circumstance and Hauser... can't

Ответ для Chet Wydrzynski

But we’ve seen Brown consistently take shots he shouldn’t be taking (or dribble into a turnover) when he has shooters like Hauser or Tatum open.

Ответ для vvernerherz0g

Sure. He's not a perfect player. Not saying he is. But he was Finals MVP!!

I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to condense my thoughts on the trade into writing after it happened, and this was my conclusion about Jaylen

Ответ для T. Ferox

it’s also impossible to disentangle this analysis (which i agree with) from his contract, which is one of the largest in the league and a primary reason why he was traded

Ответ для Michael Pina

Yeah for sure. It makes me feel insane but I've been able to get my head around it, largely thanks to Ryan Bernardoni's writing on that topic

Ответ для T. Ferox

Suffice to say I agree with you that NBA historians will consider the apron era to not have been cool

really good, as always. i can explain the MLB comment more if you like, but it doesn't seem like you need the context. that was my life for a long time at places like FanGraphs. i actually wrote a little thing about why i trust basketball stats less than baseball: green-tint.ghost.io/the-three-ma...

The Three Main Problems with Basketball AnalyticsAnalytics became a flashpoint in the wake of the Jaylen Brown trade, which I found amusing. Much of the discussion was note for note the debate that existed in baseball's discourse back when I was fir...green-tint.ghost.io

The king of nerds Zach Lowe did this. Now his god CP3 is dead so he is acting like he didn’t start this shit.