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Публикация

Gabriela Greilinger

I've been asked over the last few days/weeks what I think will happen on April 12th in Orbán's 🇭🇺 (and the aftermath), so here's my assessment, looking at everything as it stands now 🧵 tldr: It's complicated, and no one really knows (and those who say they do are either lying or overly confident) 1/

Обсуждение

4 прямых ответов · 15 сообщений

volodimir67

When your electoral system is as complicated as this, you know one thing: somebody’s afraid of losing.

Stefan Stockinger

Super Info - danke!

Gabriela Greilinger

Yes, polls largely show Magyar in the lead (except for those from Fidesz-aligned polling institutes). While this is a good sign, it doesn't necessarily mean that Magyar will win, much less that he will win with a 2/3 Majority. Here is why: 2/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

First things first: Orbán overhauled the electoral system upon returning to power in 2010. Hungary's election system is now highly gerrymandered and manipulated. Electoral districts have been moved repeatedly over the years to ensure Fidesz victories in those districts. 3/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

They again gerrymandered districts in 2024, so that Budapest lost 2 constituencies (i.e. 2 seats) while Pest County gained 2. Generally, Fidesz argues it's in line with the rules and allowed/necessary due to demographic changes (a welcome excuse), but these changes primarily benefit Fidesz. 4/

Készül a Fidesz 2026-ra: átrajzolták a választási térképet és módosítottak a szabályokonElfogadta a választási törvény módosítását az Országgyűlés. Elvesznek az ellenzéki többségű Budapesttől két parlamenti képviselőt, és átalakították a beosztást több vármegyében is.telex.hu
Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

Moreover, they reduced the size of parliament in 2011, cutting the # of MPs from 386 to 199, a change largely welcomed. There are now 106 MPs elected from single-member districts with a simple majority, while 93 are elected from national lists, where the country represents one district. 5/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

There are two mechanisms that further complicate things: 1) loser compensation and 2) winner compensation. Loser compensation means the losing party in a district has its votes transferred to its party list, so they wouldn't be "wasted". This is fairly common in mixed-system elections. 6/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

Winner compensation (added by Orbán) means that those who win their districts get the extra votes not needed to win added to the party list, too. Overall, it disproportionally benefits larger parties. 7/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

What that means in practice: If Party A wins district X with 300 votes and Party B loses with 200 votes, then the 99 extra votes the Party A received (bc they only needed 200+1) will be added to Party A’s party-list votes, while 200 votes for Party B will be added to theirs as compensation. 8/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

While MPs in the 106 single-member districts are elected by simple majority, the remaining 93 party-list seats are distributed using the d'Hondt method. But, there are also preferential mandates from ethnic lists. I won't get into that now, but more info here for freaks who are interested: 9/

Understanding the Hungarian electoral systemA guide to the Hungarian electoral system + educational videospoliticalcapital.hu
Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

Setting aside the free but unfair electoral system, Fidesz has granted Hungarian minorities abroad passports and thereby the right to vote. These minorities overwhelmingly vote for Fidesz. 10/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Gabriela Greilinger

Another issue: voter tourism, which was legalised in 2021. Voters can now register to vote in any district. The consequence: voters could suddenly be "moved" from "safe" Fidesz districts to districts where the race was close, giving Fidesz another unfair advantage. 11/

Ответ для Gabriela Greilinger
Kurswagen

and they advertise there to go voting. paid by the state. Novi Sad / Újvidék today.

Fabian Baumann

Do you think IF Orbán loses, he and his cronies will be tried for corruption? Or even high treason? It seems to me that his collusion with Putin could fall under section 258, 2b and c of Hungarian penal law.

Ответ для Fabian Baumann
Gabriela Greilinger

I’m no legal expert, but I personally doubt it, mainly because Fidesz has loyalists placed in top positions across all relevant institutions. For now, it would already be a positive step if Hungary joined the European Public Prosecutor's Office (which Magyar said he’d do).