And @ecoclimatelab.bsky.social thank you for the pointer btw 😊, but the latest study from Kaighin seems to suggest VPD estimates indeed lead to an overestimation (agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...) so how to reconcile this with the last ~3 years?

Large Overestimation of Projected Western U.S. Wildfire Burned Forest Area With WarmingWildfires in western U.S. forests burn hotter and spread farther when fuel is drier Studies using vapor pressure deficit as a proxy for land dryness claim that burned area will increase dramatica...agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com