Odds are meaningless if you only get one roll. It is in your best interest to assume anything with random chance involved *will* fuck you over unless you can average it out over dozens or hundreds of attempts. Fate loves to punish hubris.
Will StancilI know the take that’s gonna do numbers is “this is rational” but no, people aren’t rational, people are terrible at numbers, this isn’t really rational, people just can’t do math. It’s actually well-known that people are irrational, don’t debase yourself pretending this is smart