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Профиль

Jonathan Erdman

Профиль Vively

Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.

All the "1s" on this map from the SERCC show cities with their hottest year-to-date, or a tie through late July. Includes: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.

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Looks like the Land of Lincoln will only continue to pad its incredible lead over all other states in the 2026 tornado race, unfortunately, once surveys are done from Monday's severe weather.

America's top tornado state In 2026, so far, is surprisingOne state far and away leads the pack in 2026 for both confirmed and reports of tornadoes. It's not the one you think.weather.com
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NWS-Green Bay rated the Appleton-Menasha tornado a preliminary EF3, with maximum estimated winds of 140 mph. Since 1950, per NCEI storm events database, that's only the 4th tornado rated F/EF3+ in either Outagamie or Winnebago Counties. The last one, there, was April 27, 1984.

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Fans at Lambeau Field for today's Packers annual shareholder meeting should pay close attention to the weather. A line of severe t-storms could head toward Green Bay in about an hour. Listen to directions of Lambeau Field staff and seek shelter if those storms move in.

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I used to bike, jog, rollerblade along this small creek while at CSU. Never gave thought to it at the time, but that nearby small creek or river can become a life-threatening torrent in an extreme rain event such as this one.

Weather History

July 27-28th, 1997: Fort Collins, CO, was inundated by a flood that killed five people. The event inspired the creation of CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network), an international network of volunteers who monitor daily precipitation totals.

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After Genevieve briefly hit Cat. 5 earlier this AM, looks like Tropical Storm Dolphin is forecast to become the week's second Cat. 5 near Wake Island in a few days. Dolphin could have an interesting future later next week. 👀 (Model forecast: @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social)

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RRFS near-surface smoke forecast for this weekend, for now, doesn't look anywhere near as ominous as last week's event.

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Three weeks of July in the books, and it has been among the top 10 hottest on record from Florida to parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and N. Plains. Hottest: Elkins, WV; Marquette, MI (tie) and Rapid City, SD. Data: SERCC

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It's not as lame, but I'm getting some T.S. Don 2011 vibes with Bertha right now.

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The shear that saved the Gulf Coast from what could have been a potentially stronger Bertha, as seen by satellite this AM. 🛰️: CIRA, NOAA

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2026 Atlantic hurricane season-to-date: Lopsided, sheared Gulf tropical storms: 2 Caribbean shear: very high That's it, so far.

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We're now halfway through "meteorological summer" (June-August). Boston, Providence, W. Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota have had their warmest first half of any "meteorological summer", per SERCC.

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Smoke outlook: - Some improvement later today in upper Midwest. - T-storm threat could clean air in Northeast tomorrow - Second, third waves of smoke this weekend, then Tue-Thu. - That "third wave" could -> parts of South.

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Multiple flood waves along the Guadalupe River in Texas. Reminds me of an eyewall, then eye, then other side of the eyewall.

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Now the third highest flood level on record along the Guadalupe River at Comfort, TX. About 1.5 feet above the July 4, 2025, crest, there, and behind only the floods of 1869 and 1978.

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FWIW, NASA's GEOS model is forecasting two more southward plunges of wildfire smoke: 1) This weekend 2) Next Tue-Thu The second one could at least bring some surface smoke into parts of the South.

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A morning sunrise here in the Milwaukee suburbs more along the lines of what I saw in a trip to Beijing over 10 years ago. #Codepurple #coughcough

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This smoke episode the next couple of days won't be the only one. With NW flow aloft forecast to be reinforced in the E. US, we could see another smoke episode this weekend, then again next week. It's a "catch 22" we've seen in recent summers. Heat relief, but smoke-tapping pattern.

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The US heat dome, a northern Quebec gyre, and some smoke tapped into New England. 🛰️: NOAA, CIRA_CSU

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They may come up just short, but two typical US "cold spots" will flirt with extremely rare 100s today. Int'l Falls, MN ("Nation's Icebox") last hit 100˚ almost 103 years ago. Marquette, MI (NWS office location) has not recorded a triple digit high in records since 1961.

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