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1/ The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% today. That was expected. Far more concerning is what has happened since it finalised its forecast—and what its adverse scenario says could come next. 🧵

1/ The OBR published its 50-year projections for the public finances today. Stable this decade, then increasingly unsustainable as the costs of ageing, health and weak productivity build. It'll be overshadowed by NATO coverage — here's why it shouldn't be 🧵

GDP grew 0.6% in March — better than feared, but don't get comfortable. As I wrote today, the Iran shock barely shows up in this data. The real damage is still coming, and leaving it to the Bank of England is the wrong response. www.lbc.co.uk/article/gdp-... 🧵👇

Don't be fooled by today's GDP figures. The real Iran shock is coming | LBCAn immediate 10p fuel duty cut could reduce peak inflation by up to 2 percentage points, writes economist William Elliswww.lbc.co.uk

CPI held steady at 3% in February — as lower motor fuel costs were offset by higher core goods prices. But today's figures are a snapshot of the world before Trump's conflict in the Middle East. The real story is what's coming next. 🧵

Markets weren’t surprised the Bank of England held rates today. But the backdrop has shifted: the Bank has cut its inflation and growth forecasts, strengthening the case for earlier rate cuts to support the economy while keeping inflation on target. #BoE #UKeconomy 🧵

The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp today. A welcome move as inflation pressures ease and the labour market cools. The next question is the pace: further cuts in 2026 look likely, but it will hinge on incoming data. Thread below 🧵

Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule. Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.

Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵

Rule of the market: How to lower UK borrowing costs | IPPRTo lower borrowing costs, the government must continue to rebuild credibility, carefully manage market sentiment and pursue growth-enhancing policies withwww.ippr.org

The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy

Great to see Rachel Reeves strike a clear note on fiscal sustainability & reducing debt at #LabourConference2025. Sending the right signal ahead of the Budget is crucial — and markets look to have responded positively.

Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇

The ‘educated guess’ set to decide Keir Starmer’s fiscal fateOBR judgment on productivity comes as Labour backbenchers fret about watchdog’s influencewww.ft.com

1/Productivity really matters - strong growth allows us to produce more, collecting extra tax. Today's data still looks weak, seemingly vindicating calls for a costly OBR downgrade - but closer assessment reveals a strong argument for keeping steady.