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Weekly avg WAFz & OLRa also show a clear wave source emanating from the NE Pacific where SSTs are record warm & fueling convection anomalies. This dynamical connection is not unlike the findings of some studies of the 2021 Pacific NW heatwave, including this one: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The fingerprints of El Nino with a subseasonal boost from the MJO/BSISO & GLAAM are all over this highly anomalous wave pattern

Even utilizing the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), the NINO 3.4 region SSTa this year are only being rivaled by the 1997-98 "El Niño of the Century". Our developing "Super" El Niño has exhibited the most remarkable build-up of SSTa since the beginning of the year in the entire satellite era.

Also want to note, that this year marks the first time we've ever crossed the 29C mark during the northern summer (JJA) in the NINO 3.4 region.

I've updated the Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) ENS ONI value of +0.97C was the 9th highest in AMJ since 1850, indicative of a strong El Niño via ranks The latest monthly ENS ONI value of +1.45C is the highest on record for June www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oce...

The low frequency state already is deviating rather significantly from a typical La Nina. The transition period between La Nina & El Nino onset often comes with more frequent -EPO/+TNH, especially in mid-late winter

Westerly wind anomalies deep into the Indo-Pacific during the fall before El Niño play a *very* underrated role in preconditioning/charging the Warm Pool over the West Pac The build-up of the West Pac Warm Pool provides the “fuel” for El Niño to grow later in the yr This yr is a classic example👇

How do our low-level zonal wind anomalies over the Indo-Pacific the past few months compare to the onset years of every El Niño since 1950? Almost a perfect match overall. The westerly low-level wind anomalies deep in the Warm Pool are doing a lot of damage already to our current La Nina state

The mean Indo-Pacific Warm Pool last month looks similar to what preceded the 1982, 1997, 2006, 2014, & 2018 El Ninos The Warm Pool is plenty strong enough for El Niño later this year Note that 30C SSTs are centered ~160E & extend to nearly the dateline below the equator

Euro weekly 7-day avg precip anomaly fcst for mid Jan (left) vs correlation b/t the CPC’s EP/NH index & OLRa (right) Note the Eq. Rossby Wave ~150-160E in the Eq. Pacific in both images, where 2 anomalous centers of convective heating straddle the equator. That’s usually how you get -EPO in winter

A lot of the +U is off-equatorial so it’s definitely somewhat a function of box size. However, those off-equatorial westerlies are important too for charging the Warm Pool and forcing a +PMM

Rather unsurprisingly, the easterly trade winds are MIA relatively speaking as this -NPO pattern strengthens its grip on the North Pacific

NDJF N Pacific SLPa 1 year before El Nino (left) vs the Euro weekly forecast thru early Jan (right) This year has a classic negative N Pacific Oscillation (-NPO) pattern that often precedes El Nino events in the following calendar year See Vimont et al (2003): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

The ongoing MJO event in the West Pacific has led to a *gigantic* build-up of westerly momentum in the tropical troposphere, w/ GLAAM anomalies approaching 3 sigma! Very El Nino-like

TAO buoy subsurface animation for this past month Notice the thermocline is quickly deepening and the subsurface anomalies are beginning to advance eastward over the West-Central Equatorial Pacific.

We likely won't realize the true scope of the ocean response to this MJO event until early Jan or so, but early signs already point to a pretty big ocean response, even before the WWB event in the West-Central Pacific has occurred La Niña is living on borrowed time in the grand scheme of things

I definitely need to take better care of myself and get more regular exercise and eat healthier. Those things would also certainly help

It really depends on how far the eastern edge of the warm pool is zonally advected towards the central pacific the next few months whether the +TNH is associated with less -PNA or more +PNA late winter. The current configuration is very favorable to +TNH tho

The thermocline in the West-Central Eq. Pacific is already responding to the Westerly Wind Burst event & -IOD collapse that occurred earlier this month in association w/ the MJO. A downwelling Kelvin Wave is forming over the West Pacific & will help eventually destroy La Nina in a few months or so.

Hope so too!