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Looking forward to this ’Inside Intelligence’ discussion next week on European security from a Finnish perspective, in light of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

A New NATO Ally's Perspective on the Ukraine War's OutlookInside Intelligence presents “A New NATO Ally's Perspective on the Ukraine War's Outlook"www.eventbrite.com

¡Felicidades, España! Well played.

Finnish Security and Intelligence Service has today published its annual National Security Overview. As Director Juha Martelius notes in his foreword, there are no new positive developments in sight for Finland’s security situation. supo.fi/en/overview

Pleased to share that this book with Finnish perspectives on political and security developments related to Russia is out. Open Access! Includes my chapter on open source as a window into the war in Ukraine, taking the long view between 2014-2025. link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Inevitable Instability in RussiaThis contributed volume offers expert insights to help readers understand contemporary Russia and anticipate its futurelink.springer.com

It’s frustrating that Copilot is now bolted onto everything in Win11, yet it doesn’t properly integrate with apps and underperforms compared to ChatGPT and Gemini.

I’m glad our President is a triathlonist, because by God, navigating all these twists and turns in world events require similar endurance. 😅

We’re living in times of uncertainty, so during the holiday season we should focus on what grounds us - our loved ones and what supports us through the year. Happy holidays to everyone.

The most memorable shots in photography are the ones you have in your viewfinder, but don’t quite catch.

Finland 1939 vs. Ukraine 2022. Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.

Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.

New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux

'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in fluxwww.doria.fi

In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅

UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”

Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — June 2025 | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in UkraineWith at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years. The number of civilians killed in June ...ukraine.ohchr.org

Here we go.

IntroductionHow we're here and what to expect.open.substack.com

I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com

OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki | SubstackDiscussion, research and analysis on intelligence, with a Finnish twist. Click to read OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.vpkivimaki.substack.com

Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...

Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Intelligence-Policy Relations - ICDSThe unusual geopolitical moment created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, now, by the shift in official US policy and tone present enormous challenges for Europe’s political leaders, nat...icds.ee

Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.

If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.

Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today: 🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029 🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines

Finland prepares to leave Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landminesFinland's defence spending will be increased to three percent of GDP by 2029 and much of that money will go towards upgrading Finnish Army equipment.yle.fi

Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...