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For the first time this cycle, our forecast favors Democrat Sherrod Brown over Republican Jon Husted in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race.

For the first time this cycle, our forecast has shifted Iowa’s U.S. Senate race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican.

7/30 Forecast Update Democrats improve in both chambers as President Trump’s approval hits a record low, but the GOP’s seat buffer and favorable map keep Republicans slight favorites in the Senate. 🔴 U.S. Senate: 51.9% (-5.0% since 7/17) 🔵 U.S. House: 76.4% (+6.5% since 7/17)

BREAKING — Mandela Barnes has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Wisconsin Governor.

NEWS — Per POLITICO, Mandela Barnes is considering dropping out of the Democratic primary for Wisconsin Governor.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 38.1%, the lowest recorded in his presidency. His net approval is down 10 points since early March.

Following today’s forecast run, VoteHub now rates the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton as a Tossup.

ANALYSIS — Progressives are leading in the Midwest. In our weekly polling rundown, @MayTheSchwartz7 breaks down Abdul El-Sayed’s advantage in Michigan, Francesca Hong’s commanding lead in Wisconsin, and what both could mean for November. votehub.com/2026/07/29/w...

VoteHub projects Larry Rhoden to win the Republican primary runoff for South Dakota Governor.

Georgia U.S. House District 13 Special Election Final Results: 🔵 Marcye Scott – 9,117 (48.0%) ➡️ 🔵 Everton Blair – 6,759 (35.6%) ➡️ 🔴 Caesar Gonzales – 1,612 (8.5%) This is a Harris+42 district, so this is a 32 point overperformance for Democrats.

VoteHub projects Marcye Scott and Everton Blair to advance to the general election for the Georgia U.S. House District 13 Special Election.

Georgia U.S. House District 13 Special Election 52% Reported: 🔵 Marcye Scott – 4,987 (52.9%) 🔵 Everton Blair – 3,155 (33.4%) 🔴 Caesar Gonzales – 648 (6.9%) This is a Harris+42 district, so Democrats are currently overperforming by 37 points. The ED vote should be more red.

Georgia U.S. House District 13 Special Election 10% Reported: 🔵 Marcye Scott - 1,458 (66.2%) 🔵 Everton Blair - 491 (22.3%) 🔴 Caesar Gonzales - 99 (4.5%)

TONIGHT — Elections in Georgia and South Dakota. In Georgia, Marcye Scott and Everton Blair lead a crowded jungle primary in Harris +42 GA-13 to succeed Rep. David Scott, who died in April. The race will advance to a runoff if no candidate wins a majority.

ANALYSIS — Black turnout surged across several Southern primaries following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision, especially in areas targeted by Republican redistricting efforts. @ElliscbIV breaks down the emerging “Callais Effect” across the Black Belt. votehub.com/2026/07/28/a...

A Post-Callais Effect: Inside the Black Belt Turnout SurgeMore than two months after the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling, Black turnout has surged across numerous Southern primaries. It’s a trend that could shape key midterm races.votehub.com

Recent Texas U.S. Senate polls 🆕 7/15 (Slingshot): 🔵 Talarico +5 6/28 (A2): 🔵 Talarico +2 6/27 (NYT/Siena): 🟡 Even 6/21 (SoCal): 🔴 Paxton +1 6/12 (YouGov): 🔴 Paxton +1 6/4 (Siena): 🟡 Even

NEWS — A Florida judge has rejected Jay Collins’ lawsuit seeking to remove James Fishback from the Aug. 18 Republican gubernatorial primary ballot. Fishback successfully claimed that he maintained Florida residency.

🚨 NEW — Explore how Senate races are correlated with VoteHub’s Senate Scenario Builder. Pick whether the Democrat or Republican will win in key races, and we’ll feed those results into the same simulations behind our forecast to show how your choices affect the rest of the map.

Видео

The midterms are just 100 days away. @ZacharyDonnini breaks down where things stand right now: why Democrats are favored to win the House, the six races likely to decide the Senate, and what could change before November. votehub.com/2026/07/26/1...

100 Days Out: State of the MidtermsWith 100 days until the midterms, Democrats are favored for the House, while six key races will determine control of the Senate.votehub.com

NEWS — Maine Democrats have officially nominated Troy Jackson for U.S. Senate in a 566-5 delegate vote.