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When a space weather event is strong enough for NOAA SWPC to forecast G2 or higher conditions, I send a free alert to my full email list. I use those emails to explain the aurora potential in plain language, with timing and location details people can use. go.theauroraguy.com/alerts

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AURORA ALERT 🚨 NOAA has a G2 / moderate storm watch for the Aug 2 UTC day, which for North America starts TONIGHT (Sat Aug 1). Northern lights possible across the northern U.S. and southern Canada into early Sunday. Donut of doom below is for attention only. Thread 👇 #heliophysics

Aurora alert email sent about the chance of a G2 storm tonight! A CME may clip us around 2 UT August 2 according to models. Chances are roughly 40% for a complete miss, though so plan according to a low-certainty event. More updates soon!

Stepped outside to take my nighttime walk and randomly saw rocket exhaust from the recent Starlink launch in the sky

A decent CME was launched yesterday with an M1.9 flare from a western-limb active region. Unfortunately, most of the ejecta is headed AWAY from Earth to the west and north. Still, NOAA SWPC has issued a G2 / moderate geomagnetic storm watch and is predicting impact sometime around 3 UT on Aug 2.

There is a G2 / moderate geomagnetic storm watch out for August 2 UT day according to NOAA SWPC. This means I will be sending an AURORA ALERT with all the details about this event. Stay tuned and get subscribed: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts

Sign up for my aurora alerts!Get notified when aurora potential becomes high and receive my FREE aurora chasing e-book!go.theauroraguy.com

Here is the HUXt model for the M1.9 CME + a couple others in the mix. It looks like we already saw the arrival of the green/orange CMEs, both of which were only modeled with an impact velocity of ~300 km/s. "CME19" is the M1.9 CME with a ~60% chance of impact with wide uncertainty on arrival time.

Here is the NOAA SWPC ENLIL model for the M1.9 CME. As you can see, it is barely a hit with the CME passing mostly west and north of Earth. Still, there is a possibility we could see something late on Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Impact according to this model is around 3 UT on August 2.

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NOAA SWPC has released their model for the M1.9 CME with a very slight clip predicted for Earth around 3 UT on August 2. This is early Sunday morning, but with timezone conversion actually late Saturday night for North American chasers.

Extremely colorful and pronounced red auroral pillars facing south from Fairbanks, Alaska

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Here's the M1.9 CME in CCOR-2 showing almost a full halo CME. NASA thinks this CME will deliver a grazing blow at Earth on Saturday night, but we'll see! Even direct shots aren't guaranteed, let alone glancing blows. We are still waiting for NOAA SWPC's model and official prediction.

Here is the updated NASA M2M ENLIL model of the CME from the M1.9 flare by AR 4492 indicating a glancing blow to Earth around August 1 23 UT. This is Saturday night. NOAA SWPC has not released their model of this CME. We could see mid-latitude auroras this weekend (high uncertainty).

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A beautiful CME is now emerging in NOAA CCOR-2 imagery. It loks to have a partial-halo signature and may clip Earth in 2-3 days. For now, we await more images to come in and official agency predictions of arrival time and strength.

Here is some recent imagery of the ongoing M-flare and large CME. It looks impressive particularly in GOES SUVI 284 Å where a wide EUV wave is seen propagating close to the Sun-Earth line. There is a possibility Earth could get clipped by this eruption, but it's too early to call.

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FYI it appears that SpaceWeatherLive is not working properly today--there is an M-flare ongoing. I was not notified of the ongoing activity and happened to check GOES x-ray flux to find out. The app has been having glitches/dropouts over the past couple weeks.

The bright front of the CME is emerging now in CCOR-2 imagery. The CME has a wide EUV wave propagation in the Sun's atmosphere which crosses the meridian (Sun-Earth line). It is possible there are Earth-directed components with this event, but too early to call!

An M1.9 flare is currently occuring from AR 4492 which is near the Sun's western limb. A very large CME is also lifting off which has a small chance of containing Earth-directed components. We will see what the coronagraphs reveal as the event is currently unfolding.

Right after this sunet, the aurora stared appearing overhead with intense red colors.

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If you are hoping to chase aurora next season, summer is the time to build the foundation. My free guide explains forecasts, substorms, timing, and realistic expectations before you are tired, cold, and trying to make decisions in the dark far from your hotel. go.theauroraguy.com/ebook

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Rainbow, multicolored aurora.

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