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Another brand new edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering tomorrow’s primaries in Missouri! Will a family dynasty go down in St. Louis? Will grassroots conservatives turf out the establishment? Find out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Missouri Primary PreviewCovering ALL of the state legiopen.substack.com

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering tomorrow’s primaries in Kansas! From insurgent Democrats in Lawrence and Topeka to a comeback story in Wichita, Kansas has a lot going on this year. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Kansas Primary PreviewPreviewing all of the state legislative primaries in Kansas tomorrow!open.substack.com

There's a Democrat running for State House in Tennessee in a Trump+a gajillion district that has a whole section of his website dedicated to dunking on Charlie Kirk

In doing research on the state legislative primaries in Missouri on Tuesday (article out Monday!), I was genuinely surprised at the amount of Republican candidates who oppose this amendment. Maybe because they realize that it's bad for conservative grassroots initiatives! bsky.app/profile/redi...

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in New York. After losing the Senate supermajority in 2024, the Democrats should be favored to win it back this year and keep their Assembly supermajority at the same time.

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Nevada! Despite it being a Trump+3 state and having a competitive race for Governor, the Democrats look very favored to retain control of both chambers.

bsky.app/profile/corn...

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Maine! With Democrats looking set to easily win the Governor's race (and in a very competitive race for US Senate), the legislative Democrats are favored to defend their slim majorities.

As much as it pains me to admit it... Sean Trende knows ball here

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Iowa! With Rob Sand & Josh Turek leading the ticket, the Iowa Democrats have the serious potential to gain a good amount of seats (especially in the House). Enough to flip both chambers? Probably not.

I'm not changing any of my ratings for Wisconsin until the online pants-wetting over Francesca Hong is reflected in reality. Literally tied with Tom Tiffany among likely voters per Marquette (THE GOLD STANDARD OF WISCONSIN) btw

No but seriously $40 for a state legislative forecast is wild work I get you have people to pay/services are expensive, but geez $40 to see state legislative ratings is insane

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Arizona! Both chambers are as close to pure toss-ups as can be. With a Democratic-favored environment, the Dems are already favored to flip a few seats, but will it be enough to flip the House and Senate?

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Colorado! With the Republicans nominating Victor "probably the George Santos of Colorado" Marx for Governor, Democratic odds of supermajorities in both chambers have gone up.

Chat, is beefing with a survivor of one of the most high-profile political assassination attempts in the last decade a winning campaign strategy. Please help me, my campaign is flailing bsky.app/profile/roll...

I think I'd respect those who partner with Kalshi a lot more if they just came out and said that they were in it for the money. Instead, they're like "Wow, the odds of this candidate winning are like 25%, that's not impossible according to the degenerate gamblers!" And never disclose partnerships

Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in New Hampshire! While the Republicans should be fine in the State Senate (where they have gerrymandered themselves into a majority), the 400-member State House is a pure toss-up (much like it is every year).

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in New Hampshire! It's the final state that needs a forecast and it's definitely the biggest one. There's over 400 seats to rate folks, so I'm saving the best for last.

If the North Carolina Democrats want to expand their footprint on the gerrymandered State Senate map, then #SD11 is probably one of their top targets. This district north of the Raleigh metro backed Trump by 4, but GOP incumbent Lisa Stone Barnes only won by 3 in 2024.

Eh, close enough bsky.app/profile/uncr...