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There are several unanswerable questions in our philosophical framework; is there a God? What is the meaning of life? Why is oil not $200/bbl?

Well, it's not going to help. It wouldn't be such a problem if refineries in the Middle East weren't stuck behind barriers, plus India refineries were struggling to get diesel heavy feedstock. Ultimately, I would rather see Russian refineries blow up though.

It also tells you active refining capacity has extraordinary market power at the moment, so there ain't going to be much pressure to give up on too much margin if crude prices come back up. Warning light in diesel markets flashing.

There is some absolutely bananas things going on in diesel crack spreads: diesel prices are not budging while crude prices fall. This is US refiners but given they are now integral to European diesel, it tells you diesel inventories are *tight* as export demand is pulling diesel out of the US.

When I was in charge of thought leadership for PwC in the EV charging space, we would never do this. I relied on interviews with people in the sector to collect hallucinations such as "our network will be profitable really soon".

The level would appear to be about $20-22/MMBtu which depending on the time horizon you pick is between 50-100% higher than pre-crisis.

It would appear that LNG prices have found the level for certain tanker Captains to close their eyes and 'YOLO' it through the Strait. It doesn't seem to be widespread though as tracking services are able to pick off individual ships reappearing on the other side. oilprice.com/Latest-Energ...

Who has jawboned crude prices down today then? 5% down today, which following yesterday's 10% drop is pretty significant.

I'm intrigued as what 'over his skis; might entail "Join me on my 3 day online course to learn how the secrets of Russian truck tyres can help you build your fortune...only $9,999 per registration"

...and he wasn't wrong in fairness. But the niche observation as a predictor (while others were focusing on thousands of tanks, personnel, missiles etc) has really stuck with me.

Reminds me of when Russia first invaded and there was one guy (it may be the same guy) who religiously posted pictures of Russian truck tyres, analysing just how bad condition they were in (no rotation of storage positions) and predicted progress was going to die quickly due to logistics...

I'm not sure why but I found this quite funny, just the way it's written I guess. It's like the person who wrote the first sentence hasn't met the person who finished the post.

Oh FFS - are *NOT* challenging Asian buyers over summer...

US LNG will be available on tap - it's a price question not volume. Traders are challenging Asian buyers over summer because the risk is you get left high and dry if Trump TACOs the hell out it. Strategy will change as we creep towards heating season but TTF will always beat JKM if it needs to.

i.e. storage rules are now (when you factor in allowances and loops holes etc) equating to about 74% across the EU UGS network. Draw a straight line from now at the same rate and you get to...74% (give or take) The focus on storage has been deranged for a number of years now.

Plus you need to factor in traders having larger US LNG portfolios now (vs share of pipeline contracts) which isn't stored. (Also comparing to years when the EU storage rules were a lot more tight is a bit silly - those storage rules produced awful outcomes for the consumer too)

Is something happening? In addition to the bin fire above, Nvidia down ~5% today, plus struggles elsewhere in the 'universe' of broadly AI/tech: bsky.app/profile/tomh...

The economist will suggest it as a way to bring down welfare costs, a billionaire will fund the campaign through the media to get public perception on side while covertly (through the Cayman Islands) holding a significant share in 'OAP Grinding Machines PLC'.

...so that could be another counterfactual to test if you want to keep the windfarms on the network but get constraints down to zero.

I think in the context of 'all constraint costs are bad' as per the article, yes, it probably does have to be the counterfactual. But ultimately some constraint costs are desirable (you can argue/model where you believe that point to be) otherwise it means massive oversizing of Tx infra...