Chief Economist of EFG Bank in Zurich; ex-Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland; ex-Executive Director, HKMA; ex-BIS and ex-Prof at Goethe University and Brandeis University. (Views expressed are my own.) Substack: https://swissmacro.substack.com
The absence of spillovers from higher energy prices into broader inflation explains why central banks remain cautious. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Why Central Banks Aren’t Raising RatesShort commentopen.substack.comTo understand Norwegian monetary policy, it pays to understand Norges Bank’s monetary policy framework. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Norges Bank: The Monetary Policy Framework(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)open.substack.comMy comments on the ECB decision today, July 23. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
The ECB Is Still Practising Opportunistic DisinflationThe ECB’s decision today to leave its policy rates unchanged at 2.25% was widely expected.open.substack.comSingapore's economy has remained remarkably resilient since the MAS tightened policy in April. The upcoming policy meeting will show how policymakers now assess the balance of inflation and growth risks. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Singapore: Three Months After April’s Tightening(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)open.substack.comIn today’s post, I discuss the ECB’s accounts of its monetary policy meetings and consider how they could be made more effective. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Why the ECB's Monetary Policy Accounts Should Be Much Shorter(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)open.substack.comYesterday the SNB published the summary from its policy meeting in June. If you are interested in Swiss monetary policy, these are very good reads -- informative and to the point. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
The SNB's June Monetary Policy Assessment(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)open.substack.comIs the ECB practising opportunistic disinflation? If inflation is only modestly above target, weak growth and high public debt may argue for patience rather than aggressive tightening. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Is the ECB Practising Opportunistic Disinflation?(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)open.substack.comCentral bank independence was only part of the Bank of England’s success in 1997. Equally important was the extraordinary calibre of the MPC. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
The Bank of England's MPC Is Not What It Used to BeFormerly Swiss Macro and Historyopen.substack.comMarkets are overestimating Kevin Warsh's influence on the Federal Reserve. Fed chairs gain influence by persuading colleagues, not directing them. And if the Chair communicates less, regional Fed presidents will fill the vacuum. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Markets Are Overestimating Kevin Warsh's InfluenceMany investors believe that Kevin Warsh will quickly reshape the Federal Reserve.open.substack.com“On Wednesday, [Warsh] said markets had come to rely on central bankers’ guidance to such an extent that it created an echo chamber in which prices were more likely to reflect the Fed’s views than investors’.” And why is that a problem? www.ft.com/content/6a93...
Kevin Warsh’s push to axe Fed guidance may lift US borrowing costs, investors warnTraders see more volatility ahead as new central bank chair declines to give dot plot on future path of interest rateswww.ft.comThe Riksbank announces its policy decision on Wednesday. The policy rate will almost certainly remain unchanged at 1.75%. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
This Week's Riksbank Decision: The Story Is Not the RateThe Riksbank announces its policy decision on Wednesday.open.substack.comMy thoughts on the SNB and this week’s policy meeting. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The SNB's Next Challenge is DisinflationThe SNB is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at 0% on June 18.open.substack.comStable inflation expectations are not evidence that the ECB can be passive, but evidence that the public expects it to act when necessary to maintain price stability. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Are No Reason for the ECB to HesitateInflation expectations in the euro area look reassuringly well anchored.open.substack.comMy thoughts on this week’s ECB meeting. Either hike once and stop, or hike three times in a row. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The ECB in July: Hike or StopIt is hard to make sense of market expectations of ECB policy.open.substack.comMy thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The ECB's June BetSource: https://ecb-watch.eu, data as of 29.5.2026open.substack.comThe risk of fiscal dominance in the euro area might be greater than the markets think. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bond-holde...
Bond holders are right to worry about ECB independenceIsabel Schnabel’s Goodhart Lecture of May 7, 2026 is the most candid statement about the risks to central bank independence from any ECB Executive Board member in years.swissmacroandhistory.substack.comSwiss inflation is ticking up, but the SNB has no reason to act. A June hike looks unlikely, and rates will stay on hold as long as inflation remains below 1%. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/will-the-s...
Will the SNB Raise Rates in June?With inflation rising and tensions in the Gulf continuing, some market commentators are reassessing the widely held view that the SNB will leave interest rates unchanged until at least the end of the ...swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
