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What’s that called when you keep doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude markets eased amidst a tentative pause in US-Iran fighting before tightening anew as strikes reignited and spread to critical Saudi oil facilities and as far west as Egypt. Summary below, full report in reply.

10-day average Hormuz-exiting oil flow has fallen below 3 MMbpd. That's down ~80% from late June's peak of more than 15 MMbpd. Feels silly to say five months into this, but that's not enough oil.

US commercial petroleum stocks fell by 3.7 MMbbl last week, with product builds (especially propane) offsetting a larger 7.2 MMbbl draw in commercial crude stocks. Total crude stocks stocks fell by 11 MMbbl including a 3.8 MMbbl SPR draw. Crude and gasoline precariously low.

Spoke with @theatlantic.com about the oil market's ongoing transfixed fascination with what's happening in China. What we know, what we still don't—and may never—know about China's crude import collapse, and what it all means for the future of the oil market. www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026...

The Great Chinese Oil MysteryAmerica’s greatest rival is single-handedly averting a global energy crisis. No one knows how the country is doing it—or why.www.theatlantic.com

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices continue to spiral upward, temporarily breaking back above $100/bbl as the Iran War escalated and the Houthis more directly joined the conflict with a “maritime blockade” on Saudi Arabia. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 🚀 Hormuz flows and Gulf loadings have definitively rolled over amidst mounting Middle Eastern attacks while the oil complex rerated sharply higher across flat crude prices, term structure, and refined product cracks Summary below, full report in reply.

Brazen. RTS: Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid, licensed data feed that will give banks ​and trading firms "the fastest" access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as President Donald Trump's, whose posts often move global markets www.reuters.com/technology/t...

Truth Social to sell banks 'fastest' access to Trump's postsTrump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid-for, licensed data feed that will give banks ​and trading firms "the fastest" access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as Presid...www.reuters.com

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I was joined by the one and only Jeff Currie for a wide ranging conversation about the theory and reality of crude price discovery running into the shock case study of the Hormuz Crisis. [links below]

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY🛢️ Crude prices jump, see largest weekly gain since mid-May as Iran’s attempt to control Hormuz shipping flows prompted another round of skirmishes that threatened a broader collapse of the MOU ceasefire Summary below, full report in reply.

things are quickly devolving again in the Middle East and I'm worried this is really going to tarnish the the diplomatic brand of Versailles

My latest contribution to @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social Energy: 𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗢𝗶𝗹 ‘𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴’? Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high. Free to read: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

Is Big Oil ‘Price Gouging’?Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high.thedispatch.com

Amidst fresh ship strikes by Iran, Hormuz shipping flows have moderated slightly and shifted sharply back toward the northern Iranian route from the southern Omani one.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices were effectively flat this week amidst a comparatively-quiet stretch of summer headlines, with all eyes on the optimistic-but-lurching resumption of Middle Eastern shipping activity. Summary below, full report in reply.

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 Assessing the pace and sustainability of the faster-than-expected post-MOU recovery in oil flows—both ways—through the Strait of Hormuz and the still-lagging pace of fresh Gulf loadings. www.commoditycontext.com/p/getting-ou...

Getting Our Bearings StraitAssessing the pace and sustainability of the faster-than-expected post-MOU recovery in oil flows—both ways—through the Strait of Hormuz and the still-lagging pace of fresh Gulf loadings.www.commoditycontext.com

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 💀 Crude fell another $8.50/bbl and Brent slipped into prompt contango for the first since February as the surge of exiting Hormuz barrels hit a still weak Asian import market with China on the sidelines. Summary below, link in reply.

Was a pleasure to rejoin @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social to talk about how the world managed to avoid the extraordinarily high demand-destructive pricing I initially thought would have been made necessary by a months-long closure of Hormuz open.spotify.com/episode/1tIm...

Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out RightOdd Lots · Episodeopen.spotify.com

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I was joined by @mercoglianos.bsky.social to talk about the nitty gritty of what drove shipping behaviour through the Hormuz crisis and how long it will take to normalize flows. open.spotify.com/episode/7its...

Why Oil Tankers Still Are Not Returning to the Strait of HormuzOil Ground Up · Episodeopen.spotify.com

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude plunged and curves flirted with prompt contango on the back of massive speculative short-selling following the announcement and signing of the US-Iran MOU to end the Iran War and reopen Hormuz. Summary below, full report in reply.

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices sank to the lowest weekly close since February on the back of a whiplash shift from missiles flying across the Gulf to what most parties are now presenting as an imminent MOU-signing. Summary below, link in reply.