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Yes that’s probably a sizeable part of it

You are only getting confused I think by focusing on rankings. These are not very useful when things are fragmented. Consider: the difference between first and third in vote share right now is sometimes 1-2%. Difference between first and third in best PM ratings is much larger.

No it doesn’t for the reasons given. Imagine 100% of Reform voters think Farage is best PM and no one else does. With Reform polling at 25% that means 75% of voters think he is not best PM. But that 75% is split over four plus parties.

They don’t. Reform get to second or first on vote share with about 25%. That’s less than the share who approve of Farage. It’s a fragmented system - focusing on positions is misleading, look at the vote shares

It is a fascinating phenomenon worth more investigation. I wonder how often any similar partisan polarisation of salience occurs in other countries, on this or any other issue?

Blimey. They're not messing about.

This may be new - the current disconnect between persistently high salience despite a sharp drop in immigration levels is not something we have seen before.

Quite possibly. Though one unknown here is the possibility of mutual causation - Reform talk constantly about immigration which may (further) prime its salience for their voters when reform are popular.

No other issue shows anywhere near this level of polarisation in salience. One of the primary dividing lines in our politics play the moment is between voters focussed on immigration vs voters focused on anything/everything else

I've been seeing a lot of people responding to this with "there ought to be a law," but importantly, we haven't needed a law for this sort of thing because no prior president wanted to be known as a leader who would literally kill people in their hour of need for not voting for him

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It is indeed

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Ironically, capital turned into personal possessions can very much be treated this way under…the current charging guidelines, that Robert Jenrick’s party allowed to continue unmolested for 14 years (screenshots from the latest edition of CRAG)

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Remind me...what was the Conservative poll lead when Theresa May called the 2017 election?

Ah, OK. I think the honest answer is that European political developments seldom if ever feature in UK political debates (and not at all in things like electoral decisions). We barely discuss even major European elections, US gets far more coverage.

As someone also personally and professional cheered by yesterday, I agree wholeheartedly. This change is so desparately needed, so I really hope Burnham doesn't put it all at risk

I'm not sure about the claim made from this list. Italy already has a hard right govt, PiS have fallen in polls substantially and are in internal turmoil so a KO win in Poland looks more likely, so this is really just France and Spain we are talking about.

Which I think points to autumn 2027 at the earliest, more likely spring 2028.