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Профиль

Phillips OBrien

Профиль Vively

Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily. Purveyor of a “righteous-but-rational vibe”

Just a reminder that since Laura Loomer announced her support for Ukraine, Trump has: 1) walked back a promise to let Ukraine build Patriots, 2) denied a ukrainian request for 300 PAC3s, 3) slow walked 400mil in congressionally approved aid for Ukraine. But the vibes were good!

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So the USA is going to institute a land blockade against Iran? I am personally so excited to see US ground forces go back into Afghanistan--let alone see them try and start patrolling in Pakistan and Turkmenistan. The US is so screwed it is now writing science fiction.

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If you cannot accept that what Trump has done over the last year and a half is starve Ukraine of air defense, and put off any new aid for as long as possible, so Putin can terrorize Ukraine from the air for as long as possible--you cannot accept reality.

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Wait--I thought it was guaranteed that the US would allow Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors. Everyone told me Trump was pivoting to Ukraine and Laura Loomer was onside. newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-q...

Donald Trump questions plan to let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles - FTRead morenewsukraine.rbc.ua
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I'm wondering if Gianni Infantino took strategy lessons from Donald Trump's brilliant plan for the Iran War?

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If Trump wanted to help Ukraine, he could right now. He could send weapons such as Patriot interceptors, he could sanction Russian companies and those who do business with them--immediately. There is nothing stopping him except for the fact that he doesnt want to. Why is that?

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It is tragic watching Ukraine backers getting completely played by Loomer and Trump. She will say whatever she needs to to get paid while he laughs and gives Ukraine nothing of value and continues to help Putin. Nothing has materially changed in the last weeks--nothing.

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Latest Midweek Update is out. Iran toyed with the USA this week. Trump continues to want out of the war, but Iran escalated. Their strategy seems pretty sophisticated and the end result is looking even worse for the USA. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USAPlus: Iranian Strategy; How Does This End?open.substack.com
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China has the US on the ropes in Iran and is going in for the kill. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

EXCLUSIVE: Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks, sources sayIran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made air-defence missile launchers.www.reuters.com
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What the world is learning is that the US now lacks the capability to fight for any other state, and probably will so for many years until it retools its industry and creates a new defense plan. That will never happen while these corrupt clowns run things, so will take a while.

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If you havent been paying attention, Iran is toying with the USA and tormenting Trump. Trump is desperate for a ceasefire and the Iranians are attacking vital oil facilities located in US allies. Its a strategic humiliation for the USA, and it really pains me to say that.

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Latest free piece is out. Praising a racist, conspiracist, anti-democratic, Trump-worshipper because she takes one position you like is a dangerous move and is to be regretted. The struggle is basically the same in the US and Ukraine. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

It Is All OneBecause a Racist, Conspiracist, Anti-Democrat, Oppression-Supporting, Trump-Worshipper Takes One Good Position, Does Not Make Her Worthy Of Praiseopen.substack.com
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People need to step back and understand what they are seeing. After a few months of war, the USA is running out of munitions and options fighting a country with no air force, no navy and a damaged infrastructure. US decline is real and self-inflicted.

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Free weekend update out. If the week before might have been the worst week for Ukraine in a long time, this week was much better. A new armed forces commander has been appointed and he has wide support. However, the stand off between Zelensky and Fedorov continues. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #195: The Worst Week Becomes Much Better (But Not The Best)Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi; Wildberries and Azovopen.substack.com
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People embracing a racist who trashes US democracy because she also now supports Ukraine need to understand what they are supporting. You must own this as well. There is one side in support of freedom and the rule of law, and this is not on that side.

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Latest post. How will the Russo-Ukraine War end? Well to understand that, you need to look at how wars normally conclude. It is a very different process than is usually understood, with very different considerations and concerns. Here is a start. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Scenarios For Ending The Russo-Ukraine WarHow Wars End Is A Different Process Than You Thinkopen.substack.com
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Giving more money to this Pentagon at this time is exactly the wrong idea. The US government is corrupt, it defense plans are incompetent, and it is weakening the US military. www.npr.org/2026/07/22/n...

House passes Pentagon funding bill and a blueprint to unlock new dollars for Iran warRepublicans passed more than $1 trillion for the Pentagon alongside a budget blueprint to fund the war with Iran and implement provisions of President Trump's election overhaul bill.www.npr.org
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New Midweek Update Out (mostly free). The US is weakening itself every day with this war against Iran. It is running down weapons stocks, degrading US institutions, alienating allies and strengthening China. Iranian strategy is proving itself superior. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Midweek Update #20: Each Day The US Weakens ItselfWhat It Means For US-China Relationsopen.substack.com
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Been talking to @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social about the appointment of Mykhailo Drapatyi as the new Ukrainian Commander in Chief. His first response was: “Best Choice of Zelensky”.

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The strategic reality should be clear by now. Each night of US strikes and Iranian sideways retaliation, makes the US weaker and Iran stronger. It depletes more US stocks, makes the US look weak to its partners, and reinforces to the Iranians that their strategy is the right one.

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