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Owen Winter

Профиль Vively

Covering politics, elections and data at The Economist

Restore's vote share in Greater Manchester is the highest for any far-right (right-of-Reform) party since 2010, when Nick Griffin won 15% in Barking

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Bev Craig's first preference share is four points higher than Labour won in the 2024 general election

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Labour's share: Manchester 54% (+23 vs local elections) Stockport 50% (+37) Trafford 50% (+27) Wigan 47% (+22) Bury 47% (+21) Salford 47% (+19) Tameside 42% (+18) Oldham 42% (+21) Rochdale 41% (+16) Bolton 40% (+21)

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Restore got 14% in Tameside, 12% in Rochdale and 12% in Oldham

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Manchester mayoral results, first round Bev Craig - Labour 47% (+24 vs local elections) Reform 21% (-10) Green 12% (-7) Restore 9% (new) Conservative 8% (-3) Lib Dem 3% (-7)

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Second round between Labour and Reform in Greater Manchester. Greens, Tories and Lib Dems knocked out

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With today's poll from BMG, it looks like Labour's poll bounce under Burnham has been on average ~4.7 points. A 2 point bounce when Starmer resigned and a further 2.7 points when Burnham became PM

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Average income tax per person, 2023/4: London £14,700 Greater Manchester £5,450 West Yorkshire £5,050 West Midlands £4,850 South Yorkshire £4,550 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Andy Burnham to give regional mayors share of income taxThe prime minister says the move will give power to "every postcode" but critics say the plans lack detail.www.bbc.co.uk
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In a best PM matchup, Nigel Farage loses against every other party leader: Burnham +26 Badenoch +24 Davey +11 Polanski +2 yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

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This week's YouGov/Economist poll gives Donald Trump a net approval of -28. Lowest of any YouGov/Economist presidential approval since the poll began in 2009

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Third place would be embarrassing for the Greens

Mark Chadbourn

More in Common Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election poll: LAB: 39% (-24) RFM: 19% (+12) GRN: 14% (+7) CON: 12% (+2) LDM: 8% (+4) RES: 8% (New) Ind: 1% (New) 2nd Round: LAB: 65% RFM: 35%

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Man City started the world cup with the most players in the tournament (19). By the final, Atlético Madrid had the most (9) followed by Barcelona (8)

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Do Andy B's northern creds win votes? Stack Data Strategy asked voting intention with and without listing him as PM. When Burnham is included, Labour's share rises by as much as 10pts in Manchester and other areas of the north www.economist.com/britain/2026...

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Find it interesting/surprising that neither of Kemi Badenoch or Zack Polanski did any social posts about the World Cup

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Think the alarming part for Reform about the Burnham bounce is that the Tories are rising too. His poll bump is likely to be fleeting, theirs might not be

Election Maps UK

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 23% (-1) LAB: 22% (+3) CON: 20% (+2) GRN: 14% (-2) LDM: 11% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 15-17 Jul. Changes w/ 7-10 Jul.

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Lula leads polls for the first round of Brazil's election by around. 8 points and for the second round by 4 points over Flavio Bolsonaro (the son of Jair Bolsonaro)

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So far, Keir Starmer has the highest England win rate of any British Prime Minister (76%). Liz Truss has the lowest (0% of two games)

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Find it interesting how little Wales features in Labour's leadership conversation, given this happened only two months ago

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73% say Farage is sleazy. I was also genuinely surprised that more people think Polanski is sleazy than any of Burnham, Badenoch or Davey yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

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