Econ nerd, Fed obsessive, Dodgers fan, recovering journalist (Ex-Econ Editor WaPo, WSJ), McKinsey alum, now Peterson Institute for International Economics VP Publishing, among other things. Opinions my own etc.
Latest must-read from PIIE's Michael Clemens! A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economyThe Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...www.piie.comLatest important research from PIIE's Michael Clemens: Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more AmericansThe US government has recently enacted the largest shift in immigration policy since 1924. As officials restrict unauthorized immigration, they face a stark choice: create offsetting lawful channels f...www.piie.comAmerica's been arguing over trade for more than 250 years www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
America's been arguing over trade for more than 250 yearsAs the United States marks the 250th anniversary of declaring its independence from Britain, Americans continue a tradition begun even longer ago: debating trade and tariffs. In recent years, disagree...www.piie.comChina's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize www.piie.com/research/pii...
China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrializeChina's manufacturing trade surplus and export strength, particularly in low-skill-intensive sectors such as apparel, footwear, and leather is producing a "China Squeeze"—limiting the traditional path...www.piie.comPIIE's Michael Clemens explains how the US government is driving away international students at a long-term economic cost www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The US is driving away international students at a long-term economic costFor generations, students from around the world have fueled universities in the United States, their top destination by far. Those students don't just sustain a $43 billion export industry in higher e...www.piie.comLatest must-read from PIIE's Michael Clemens --Class dismissed: The effect of international student exclusion on the US STEM workforce and economic growth (Spoiler alert: the effect is bad) www.piie.com/publications...
Class dismissed: The effect of international student exclusion on the US STEM workforce and economic growthRestrictive US government policies since 2025 have reduced international student enrollment in US universities and made it harder for foreign graduates to work in the United States. This shift, if sus...www.piie.comLatest Must Read from PIIE's Adnan Mazarei and Maurice Obstfeld: Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence www.piie.com/publications...
Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independenceOver the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the econo...www.piie.comNew from PIIE: Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets www.piie.com/research/pii...
Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging marketsThis year's Middle East war has driven up energy prices, disrupting economic activity around the world. If these effects persist for a year, they will slow global growth, hurting emerging economies mo...www.piie.comImportant new findings from PIIE's Mary Lovely and Christine Wan: Details of US so-called reciprocal trade deals reveal they are built to constrain China's economically www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
US reciprocal trade deals built to push America's trade partners away from ChinaWhen the Trump administration imposed so-called "reciprocal," country-specific tariff rates in April 2025, it made clear that the measures were intended not only to protect US industry but also as neg...www.piie.comLatest must-read from PIIE's McKibbin, Noland! Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war: slower growth and higher inflation hitting emerging markets harder than advanced economies www.piie.com/publications...
Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East warwww.piie.comCongrats Chad Bown (PIIE) and Soumaya Keyenes (FT) on the great book review from Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman! paulkrugman.substack.com/p/how-to-win...
How to Win a Trade WarTariffs and export controls and China shocks, oh mypaulkrugman.substack.comThe latest from Bown and Keynes: Trump and Xi Would Need Personality Transplants to Get This Deal Done www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/o...
Opinion | Trump and Xi Would Need Personality Transplants to Get This Deal Donewww.nytimes.comMust See TV! www.linkedin.com/posts/chad-b...
Trump-Xi Summit: IS THE U.S. PRESIDENT EQUIPPED TO WIN THIS TRADE WAR?
Thanks to Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz for the invitation to join Bloomberg News and for asking the key question.
My answer... ...Trump-Xi Summit: IS THE U.S. PRESIDENT EQUIPPED TO WIN THIS TRADE WAR?
Thanks to Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz for the invitation to join Bloomberg News and for asking the key question.
My answer...www.linkedin.comLatest must-read from PIIE's Jason Furman on Fed Chair Jay Powell: He Was Good at Steering the Fed, but He Was a Genius at Ignoring Trump’s Threats www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/o...
Opinion | He Was Good at Steering the Fed, but He Was a Genius at Ignoring Trump’s Threatswww.nytimes.comBoston Fed Prez Collins flags rate-hike scenario as inflation risks rise, per Timiraos www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Boston Fed’s Collins Flags Rate-Hike Scenario as Inflation Risks Tilt HigherIn an interview, the Fed official said she is watching how households’ inflation expectations have drifted higher.www.wsj.comHot off the presses, by PIIE's Maurice Obstfeld et al, "Steering Structural Change" mitpress.mit.edu/978026205191...
Steering Structural ChangeSteering Structural Change explores looming transformations that both advanced and developing economies face as rising geopolitical tensions, accelerating cl...mitpress.mit.eduPIIE'S Alan Wm. Wolff explains : Why do Trump's tariffs have such staying power? www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Why do Trump's tariffs have such staying power?Get used to President Donald Trump's comprehensive tariffs. Though the president's across-the-board tariffs imposed under his emergency powers were invalidated by the Supreme Court in February, the ne...www.piie.comMore from PIIE's Maurice Obstfeld. See Chapt. 4, "Global Imbalances Redux" in CEPR's latest Paris Report 4: cepr.org/publications...
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollarThe Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...www.piie.com