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Caveat a good chunk of this fieldwork was conducted before Burnham became PM which may have shifted things.

Read the full polling, also including our interactive tool, because working out who votes in a by election can be tricky and so this allows you to make your own turnout filter, below: t.co/cLWg7DyX5V

Most say Burnham has done good for Greater Manchester, and nearly half think he'll be a good Prime Minister. 52% say he has changed the city-region for the better, compared to 10% who say for the worse. 48% think he'll be a good PM, compared to under a fifth who think he'll be bad.

Nigel Farage is on -12. Kemi Badenoch -4 and Zack Polanski -7 Burnham in contrast is on +23 in his home patch.

35% have a favourable view of Bev Craig compared to 10% unfavourable, while 27% have a favourable view of Sian Astley compared to 13% unfavourable. Geraldine Coggins and Phil Eckersley are both on +9, although awareness of both is low.

Once second choices are taken into account, Bev Craig leads Sian Astley by 65 per cent to 35 per cent. Labour picks up most Green second choices, Restore Britain voters opt for Sian Astley. Tory voters split more for Reform but a sizeable chunk of their second prefs go Labour

Our polling of Greater Manchester ahead of Thursday’s by-election shows Bev Craig holding a clear lead. First preference results: 🌹 LAB 39%
⏩ REF 19%
🟢 GREEN 14%
🌳 CON 12%
🔶 LIB DEM 8%
🔵 RESTORE 8%
⚪️ IND 1% N = 1,003 | Fieldwork 11-23/7

This also marks the first time Reform have not led in our tracker since April 2025. It is the lowest share of the vote for the Greens since October last year when Polanski became leader.

Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7

No, for the overall it uses Britain including Wales and Scotland as the graphic says.

True it’s current address

But if Brits share Burnham’s view about neglect of the north. They are less engaged by his argument that neo-liberalism is to blame for our problems. 20% say it is to blame, 12% it isn’t. But that may be because only 1 in 5 say they could actually describe what neoliberalism is

A plurality of southerns *agree* the north gets less than its fair share, while they are split on if the south gets its fair share OTOH those from northern England and those from the midlands mostly think the north gets less than its fair share and over half think south gets more than its fair share

This Poll Q gives good reason to be sceptical about southern backlash against Burnham’s focus on the North of England. Overall a majority say the North gets less than its fair share of attention, and a plurality say the South gets more than its fair share and feelings are asymmetric.

A horrific attack on what is supposed to be a celebration of free expression, community and equality. Defence of those values in the face of hatred/extremism clearly more important than ever.

And how do people feel, in contrast, about Keir Starmer no longer being Prime Minister, Good is the biggest word, followed by Happy and relived, though a smaller number say sad and indifferent.

How do Brits say they feel about Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister. The top word is hopeful, followed by good and optimistic, though others aren't sure or are indifferent. A smaller number say worried.

Am struck from focus groups this week how much the lack of lectern for Burnham’s No10 speech has cut through and as a Starmer contrast, psychologically seems to have landed as bolder/removing a barrier.

I will miss the weekly 'Tuchel who' from our (very valued) poll followers, who it turns out are not football fans.

With the World Cup over Thomas Tuchel drops off our approval tracker. But we got a final data point on how England's loss to Argentina affected his rating. While he fell way back from his +36 high, he remained positive at +12 despite criticism of his approach last Wednesday.