Prediction isn’t measurement
Профиль
Kevin Collins
Профиль VivelyCo-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Husband and Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. Outdoors and cooking enthusiast. He/Him
Would the AI bubble popping also undercut the Paramount Warner deal? Or is that financing sufficiently independent ?
The New York TimesLarry Ellison borrowed billions in an effort to turn Oracle into one of the companies providing the infrastructure for the A.I. boom. Now, concerns are mounting about whether the massive investments in A.I. will ever pay off.
Word clouds and pie charts
Sanjay SrivastavaWhat is an extremely nerdy/obscure/specific thing you hate with a white-hot wrath?
Non Prob panels have higher Trump net approval and lower Dem net generic ballot that other modes
E.J. FaganAdded Echelon, TIPP, HarrisX non-probability panels. Look at the consistency of the y-intercept on approval.
Important finding, though also note experiments that show that respondents' views on which party is more corrupt (slightly different, but related) can be moved
Ariel Edwards-LevyFourth, a pair of wrenches to throw into some campaign messaging punditry: Americans are about equally likely to say that GOP is focusing too much on race/gender as to say that Dems are, and neither party has an image advantage on "fighting corruption."
Incredible longitudinal data
SSRSSports Poll has tracked @nba.com fans’ favorite active players since 1994. Among LeBron James fans, the popularity of his teams has risen & fallen w/his moves. LeBron’s fans are expected to follow him to Philly & drive an increase in the @sixersnba.bsky.social fan base. ssrs.com/insights/the...
We need a Chris Nolan adaptation Robert Caro's multi-book biography of LBJ
Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio)Chris Nolan, it's time to adapt William T. Vollman's 3,000 page book on the CIA
Film you've watched more than six times with a gif. Hard mode: no Star Trek, Star Wars, LOTR, Marvel, Disney, or Ghibli.
Ben Stein's 'Anyone? Anyone?' Iconic SceneALT: Ben Stein's 'Anyone? Anyone?' Iconic Scenestatic.klipy.comKevin M. KruseFilm you've watched more than six times with a gif. Hard mode: no Star Trek, Star Wars, LOTR, Marvel, Disney, or Ghibli.
Just report predicted probabilities for ease of interpretation. Oh, and also use linear probability model (aka ols) and run logistic regression as a robustness check
Julia M. RohrerNew blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...
There is a new Fox News poll for a Senate seat in the South showing the Democrat with a sizable lead ... but it's North Carolina not Georgia. Don't repost old polls like they're news, folks www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Update: To my read, this seems fine, even good: www.united.com/en/aw/newsro...
www.united.comKevin CollinsI hope I'm wrong, but Trump announcing Dulles renovation plans seems likely to me to be another in the long list of things in the category "Things that if done normally everyone could get behind but Trump will screw up because of narcissism, corruption, or both"
X is a non-consensual deepfake CSAM app and anyone who uses it should feel bad about themselves (and then stop).
Lora KolodnySpaceX-owned xAI, the developer of Grok, sued Minnesota AG to challenge a law coming into effect in the state that will ban "nudify" apps, use of these AI image generators to make non-consenting intimate images, aka AI deepfake porn of real people including minors. www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/s...
As a United flier, I'd actually be okay with United being in charge of the Dulles reno
◥◤Kriston Capps 250Who knows but one thing that everyone should understand is that Dulles *isn't* like other Trump projects. It isn't his administration's vision. It's United's