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Nice figure on the Warsh effect -- the gap between the 30yr and 2yr Treasury shot up as.ft.com/r/7d1c8d80-2...

Silicon Warsh — our AI version of the real Kevin Warsh — has more credibility Here’s what Silicon Warsh said during fake FOMC meeting: “The Committee needs to demonstrate, through action not rhetoric, its resolve to deliver on price stability.” as.ft.com/r/b843f13d-5... The LLM FOMC votes to raise

The LLM FOMC votes to raiseSilicon Warsh is a hawkas.ft.com

Chalk this one up to the humans! AI not yet our overlords ...

Kevin Warsh's Fed meets today to decide on rates, but the new chair has been tight-lipped, giving no signal on direction Silicon Warsh, on the other hand, loves to talk. At @alphaville.ft.com, I used LLMs to simulate the FOMC. The result: a unanimous vote to raise rates www.ft.com/content/76b4...

The LLM FOMC votes to raiseSilicon Warsh is a hawkwww.ft.com

I've written an op-ed in the @financialtimes.com today where I argue that we should talk more about consumption tax, and in particular the need to reform UK VAT It can be made more efficient and progressive while also raising much needed revenue as.ft.com/r/66472205-f...

A truly progressive VAT would solve a lot of UK tax problemsEnding exemptions while excluding low-income households would be fairer and bring in far more revenueas.ft.com

I've written about the troubling, decades-long decoupling of pay & productivity growth The textbook says these should grow together, but reality - far from perfect competition - means capital has captured more of the economic fruits AI risks widening the gap Link 👉 as.ft.com/r/a188bb54-b...

Household inflation expectations in the US are worryingly high In surveys & social media, people expect higher inflation in the long term. The market is more sanguine, but it's household behaviour that matters Warsh's Fed risks being all talk and no action on rates as.ft.com/r/bfb57ad3-6...

With the Andy Burnham era beginning, I argue that the new PM should go for a devolution 'big bang' This could help solve two big problems: low productivity in the public sector and in the UK's second-tier cities My Free Lunch column: as.ft.com/r/c9866d20-9...

I've written about the Fed and BoE's trust deficit for the @financialtimes.com central banks newsletter A growing % of households in US and UK are 'de-anchored', expecting far higher inflation in long run. Low levels of trust are an important reason why as.ft.com/r/99d85a19-0...

🤖 Can an AI ‘superforecaster’ beat the market? 🤖 When it comes to predicting Fed decisions, the AI does not (yet) have an edge as.ft.com/r/aded4aa2-4...

Kevin Warsh's desire to turn back the clock on Federal Reserve communications will add volatility to the rates markets Warsh, as evidenced by his first meeting, wants to return to the Greenspan era, a time characterised by frequent & large monetary policy surprises More: as.ft.com/r/72d10976-8...

This is really interesting -- on the misdirected spending targeting UK 'left behind' places High street makeover is far less important than good jobs www.ft.com/content/a108...

This town received a £96mn post-Brexit makeover. It voted Reform anywayHartlepool has had the most regeneration funding per head of anywhere in Englandwww.ft.com

It's great that the UK govt is looking to encourage solar panels, heat pumps and batteries, but there's got to be a more direct and effective way than this? as.ft.com/r/373ea167-a... UK government to subsidise bank loans for green home improvements

My homage to Alan Greenspan’s Fedspeak in this weekend’s @financialtimes.com Where I consider also the prospects of Kevin Warsh’s desire to turn back the clock on Fed comms as.ft.com/r/7ee6eb0f-0...

Greenspan and the important art of FedspeakFormer Fed chair’s ambiguous communication style contrasted with his efforts to make the bank more transparentas.ft.com

We hear a lot about how AI promises, or threatens, to transform the world of work. But for that to happen companies will actually need to use the tech -- so far, adoption is very low @sarahoconnorft.ft.com & I look at why in the @financialtimes.com AI shift newsletter --> as.ft.com/r/bf9e25ce-0...

Reminder that the world's first trillionaire is a far-right activist who barely sleeps so he can promote far-right content on his microblogging site Here's an updated version of that famous Economist figure

AI will lead to mass unemployment according to the technologists. Will this include central bankers? I ran a simulation of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC to find out. Rate-setters should probably be worried about their future job prospects... as.ft.com/r/0041dd19-b...

"Silicon Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed rate meeting" I've written a @financialtimes.com exclusive -- a fly-on-the-wall of a simulated FOMC meeting where fake Warsh (an LLM fed with his bio, writings, and public remarks) interacts with his new, fake colleagues as.ft.com/r/ea6068d6-1...

Right-wing UK MPs are posting far more on X/twitter since Musk's takeover, while the left retreats (but has not fully abandoned the site) One notable exception is the very online @zackpolanski.bsky.social My article w @pickardje.bsky.social & @rachel-rees.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/295c9f7e-c...

How persistent will inflation be in the UK? Megan Greene thinks v persistent & large second round effects - hence ~3 rate hikes But this is effectively a bet on companies passing-through costs -- the current data suggests margins will instead be compressed My piece: as.ft.com/r/2b923832-7...