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I’m kinda disappointed you didn’t say “Nathaniel Horadam-type hater” here

Compare with Rivian, which has like ~20,000 cars worth of inventory as of 2Q end. Or 1/3 of forecasted annual sales. Still high, but expected to improve w/ the R2 ramp up. I truly don't see how Lucid avoids a massive restructuring.

This like 15k cars (finished or unfinished) in inventory. In other words, an entire year's worth of sales.

That said, there's value in clearing out non-viable grants. A serious, rules-driven process with minimal political interference would have been good. The more crowded a field, the harder it is for anyone to raise money. But leaving everyone in limbo is much worse, and that's what we got.

They held most of DOE's minerals portfolio in limbo throughout 2025, all while eroding the commercial prospects for the sector. Especially for projects that need commercial demand, not just defense purchasing. The results have been predictable. Shovels aren't touching dirt.

We had to listen to Chris Wright ramble on right-wing media incessantly about Biden fraud at LPO for much of 2025. They audited our portfolio every time a new director came in (we had 3 Trump-appointed directors between Jan.-May), and found nothing improper. Their own wrap-up basically admitted it.

First, an obligatory note of the sanewashing I've seen over the past 18 months. And one that feels more prescient after 5 months of Iran War. Just because some analyst ascribes "strategy" to an action does not mean there's strategy involved.

Mega-endorse

Gotta say, my first rewatch of the OC hits different when Ryan is off on an epic anti-crypto crusade

We saw a big shift to high-nickel chemistries in part to reduce Congolese cobalt use. But guess what, the price there is environmental devastation in Indonesia. So now we're playing with high-manganese alternatives, LFP, etc....but it's a game of whack-a-mole.

An earlier example of the problem. "I wish we could have done this terrible market-distorting deal that has some pretty nasty implications for the US rare-earths effort" heatmap.news/energy/mp-ma...

The Pentagon’s Rare Earths Deal Is Making Former Biden Officials JealousThe multi-faceted investment is defense-oriented, but could also support domestic clean energy.heatmap.news

Here's an example of the Boromir problem: peterharrell.substack.com/p/donald-tru...

Donald Trump: Trade Order Builder?What might post-Trump US trade look like?peterharrell.substack.com

Venice and the Hanseatic League c.1200-1550 pretty close tbh. Go to Lubeck and it hits you pretty quickly those people had “f*** you” money.

Don’t forget national external counsel day

I almost wish my next Tailings piece was tackling the equity deals, but alas, that’s the following one teed up week after next

This tracks with much of what we're seeing from DOD now. Almost no diligence, equity stake, move on.

I do think the mocktail is fundamentally more an expression of guilt that you're not helping the restaurant hit its necessary margins than a genuine alternative. Most people who are health-conscious enough to avoid the booze also don't really want 150 calories of sugary drink.

I don’t have a problem with offering NA beer or mocktails (just prefer drinking soda + lime vs NA “booze”)…I am annoyed at the antisocial trend of performative temperance and think it is on net bad for society.

It was honestly the boredom. I got like two episodes into the second story arc and just couldn't go on