Профиль

Europe's dependence on US military imports is massive: For 2021–2025, arms imports by the 29 European NATO members were 143% higher than in 2016–2020, and the United States supplied 58% of those imports (SIPRI 2026).

Interesting new research by Barry Eichengreen et al.: governments undertake fiscal consolidation not when public debt is high, but when debt-service costs become burdensome. This challenges debt sustainability frameworks centred on debt-to-GDP rather than debt-service burdens.

This interesting new paper provides evidence that mass layoffs are individually *and* socially costly. Using matched employer–employee data, it finds persistent employment and earnings losses and negative productivity effects through a deterioration in the allocation of workers.

Interesting new QJE paper with 29,000+ survey participants. Most academic experts reason in line with efficient markets. Most households and investors, by contrast, expect stale earnings news to predict future returns, inconsistent with efficient-market reasoning.

EU-wide taxes on wealth, crypto assets and financial transactions could raise billions for the EU budget that no individual member state could collect alone. In this Social Europe article, we summarise findings from our recent study on options for new EU revenue sources:

Over one third of multinationals’ foreign profits are shifted to tax havens, costing governments >$200 billion a year. Reallocation would raise reported profits by 20% in high-tax EU countries, 10% in the US and 5% in developing countries; and more than halve tax-haven profits

Interesting QJE paper on how the American Medical Association helped entrench private health insurance in the US after WWII. By branding national insurance “socialised medicine” and promoting private plans, it shows how well-funded interest groups can shape opinion and policy.

Interesting new paper on how emotions shape policy views. Anger in US political discourse is at a historic high and drives online engagement. Negative emotions increase support for protectionism and tighter immigration rules. Positive emotions reduce populist inclinations.

This new AER paper finds that carbon pricing reduces emissions and spurs green innovation, but also raises energy costs and slows economic activity. Poorer households are hit hardest because they spend more of their income on energy and face larger income losses.

Healthcare spending in the United States is substantially higher than in other advanced economies, yet life expectancy is considerably lower.

Useful survey paper on recent research in geoeconomics with a focus on geoeconomic aspects of sanctions/embargoes, coercion and fragmentation in international trade, currency dominance and state-directed capital flows in international finance, and conflict/war/military production.

This seems like a very useful new data set: Small-Area Global Elections (SAGE). The main benefit is the combination of extremely fine-grained geographical election data, broad international coverage, and harmonised information across countries and elections.

The number of deaths recorded in France increased by nearly 30% during the hottest week of the June heatwave, i.e. at least 2,000 additional people died ("excess deaths"). Public Health France says it's probably an underestimate.

Since 2009, the EU's non-financial corporations have shifted from their traditional role as net borrowers - absorbing household savings to finance investment -towards a net lending position vis-à-vis the rest of the economy. By 2024, NFC net lending stood at to 1.2% of EU GDP.

Next year, the 🇩🇪federal government will spend €150 billion on defence (3.3% of GDP). In the coming years, this figure is set to rise further. Three quarters of new borrowing will go to the military/security agencies. Higher interest payments are also attributable to them.

Supply-chain disruptions can raise inflation not only by increasing import/transport costs, but also by strengthening firms’ pricing power when goods become harder to find. Companies also adjusted prices in response to competitors’ supply problems, amplifying inflationary impact.

Ich war im Podcast "Wohlstand für Alle" und habe dort mit Wolfgang Schmitt über meine Forschung zu öffentlichen Investitionen und Rüstungsausgaben sowie wirtschaftliche und politische Effekte von Budgetkürzungen gesprochen.

The ECB’s wage tracker suggests that wage growth in the euro area remains contained. Negotiated wage growth, excluding one-off payments, is expected to decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, implying real wage losses if inflation remains higher.

Interesting new Acemoglu, Autor et al paper. Lower birth rates have not reduced economic growth; they are linked to higher GDP per working-age adult across countries and higher wage growth across US commuting zones. Mechanism: a labor-saving technological response to the scarcity of younger workers.

Fiscal tightening increases political instability: approval falls; the likelihood of government crises and protests increases. Effects stronger in downturns and when consolidation relies only on spending cuts. Limiting contractionary effects helps safeguard political stability