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Профиль

Gregory Daco

Профиль Vively

Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon President @National Association for Business Economics Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit Judo Black Belt Football player & @ManCity Once-a-year triathlete Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.

Markets penalize inconsistency, not policy There has been some confusion around the sharp rise in long-term interest rates following Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference… www.linkedin.com/pulse/market...

Markets penalize inconsistency, not policyThere has been some confusion around the sharp rise in long-term interest rates following Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference, with some commentators suggesting that the move in yields reflected Warsh’...www.linkedin.com
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Warsh Considers Reducing Frequency of Fed Policy Meetings via @colbylsmith.bsky.social and @bencasselman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/b...

Warsh Considers Reducing Frequency of Fed Policy MeetingsThe Federal Reserve has met at least eight times a year for decades. Reducing the number of meetings would represent the biggest change by Kevin M. Warsh since he became chairman.www.nytimes.com
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⚠️ Dallas Fed Pres Logan explains dissent saying "modest action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing to take sharper action later" because inflation trending toward mid-2%, sees upside risks & she doesn't see policy as sufficiently restrictive www.dallasfed.org/news/release...

Statement from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on FOMC dissentPresident Lorie Logan says inflation does not appear to be on course to sustainably achieve the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent target.www.dallasfed.org
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US Employment Cost Index Labor market DIS-#inflation 📊ECI +0.9% q/q ✅Wage & salaries +0.9% ✅Benefits +1.0% 💰Wages & salaries ✅Private +0.9% q/q ✅ State & local +0.9% q/q 📉#Inflation ⤵️ECI 3.4% y/y (flat): low since '21 ⤵️Private wages 3.1% y/y (-0.3pt): pre-Covid pace

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US Employment Cost Index Labor market DIS-#INFLATION 📊ECI +0.9% q/q ✅Wage & salaries +0.9% ✅Benefits +1.0% 💰Wages & salaries ✅Private +0.9% q/q ✅ State & local +0.9% q/q 📉#Inflation ⤵️ECI 3.4% y/y (flat): low since '21 ⤵️Private wages 3.1% y/y (-0.3pt): pre-Covid pace

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⚠️ @minneapolisfed.bsky.social President Kashkari explains his dissent in favor of a 25bps to manage the "risk that high inflation could become entrenched" (which isn't the case today) adding "small policy steps" would prevent the risk of bolder moves later

Minneapolis Fed

Statement on my #FOMC Dissent A gradual tightening of policy now is preferable to a bolder action later Read President Kashkari's full statement here: https://bit.ly/4w0EHQO #EconSky

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AI is a huge DRAG on the US economy... and an enormous BOOST to private sector activity...

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⚠️Real disposable income rebounded in June, but the income/spending gap has widened over past 2 years: Spending is increasingly financed by savings, credit and wealth...

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The yen surged by more than 3% against the US dollar, marking its biggest jump since December 2023 and stoking speculation that Japanese officials again intervened in the market. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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US #inflation eases on temp relief from Middle East conflict 📆June 2026 ✅Headline PCE prices: -0.11% m/m ✅Core PCE prices: +0.13% m/m 🎯Inflation moving toward #Fed 2% target ⏬Headline PCE inflation: 3.7% (-0.4pt) ⏬Core PCE inflation: 3.3% (-0.1pt)

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Consumer spending resilience in June 🛒Consumer spending +0.3% ✅Inflation-adj +0.4% 💵Disposable income +0.2% ✅Inflation-adj +0.3% 🏦Savings rate: 2.7% (-0.1pt): Low since '22⚠️ 📈PCE #inflation ⬇️Headline inflation: 3.7% (-0.4pt) ⬇️Core inflation: 3.3% (-0.1pt)

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US economy maintains moderate momentum Real #GDP ✅+1.5% q/q ✅+2.1% y/y 🛒Cons solid +3.2% 👩‍💻Biz invest +8.4%: big AI-led gains 🏘️Resid invest 1.5% (first gain since '24) 📦Trade -1.0pt: imports surge 🏗️Inventories -0.7pt 🏦Gov -0.8% 📈PCE #Inflation 🔺3.8% y/y 🔺Core 3.3% y/y

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So interesting that after all of the noise around the #Fed may hike -- markets were pricing an unusually elevated 35% prob -- the Fed stays put and remains cryptic as to its reaction function & rationale for staying put in July.

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🚨 #Fed fractures & remains cryptic ⚠️Short statement: 131 words 1️⃣ #FOMC holds 3.5-3.75% with 9/3 vote 2️⃣3 Dissents: Logan, Hammack & Kashkari 3️⃣1 word change: "continuing" ample reserves 4️⃣ Activity "solid" & inflation "elevated" but Middle East "uncertainty" pressuring inflation

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🥇Record attendance, outstanding discussions, and a well-deserved NABE Fellow recognition for Dr. Raphael Bostic, former President of the @atlantafed.org ! Grateful to everyone who made this year’s @nabe-econ.bsky.social Foundation Economic Measurement Seminar a success!

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👀 Kevin Warsh Wanted a ‘Good Family Fight’ at the Fed. He’s Getting One via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

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Great session with @davidmwessel.bsky.social at @nabe-econ.bsky.social Economic Measurement Seminar « The ability to express yourself clearly, both in writing and verbally, is one of the most marketable skills » in the AI era

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The July #FOMC meeting is shaping up as unusually enigmatic with #Fed Chair Warsh’s communication void filled by a growing chorus of policymakers defining their own reaction functions. Tariffs, Middle East conflict & AI: policy response needed? what prescription? www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

Who is holding the reins? | Gregory DacoThe July #FOMC meeting is shaping up as unusually enigmatic, with Chair Warsh’s communication void filled by a growing chorus of policymakers defining their own reaction functions. Even the announceme...www.linkedin.com
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Great Muse concert at Jones Beach Theater 😎

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A pleasure to join @cnbc.com Fast Money to discuss why I believe the Middle East conflict is a catalyst—not the cause—of higher bond yields. The upward pressure on long-term rates remains structural via @EY_Parthenon @EY_US cnb.cx/4fiYgir

EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Daco on what yield spike says about the U.S. economyEY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco joins 'Fast Money' to talk what recent moves in the bond market is signaling.cnb.cx
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