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🔶 | Lowest Lib Dem vote share in any poll since June 2024 (WeThink, 20-21 Jun).

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 27% (-1) LAB: 27% (-1) CON: 19% (+1) GRN: 10% (=) LDM: 8% (-2) SNP: 3% (=) Via @deltapoll.bsky.social, 24-27 Jul. Changes w/ 17-20 Jul.

Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 26% (+1) RFM: 24% (-2) CON: 21% (+2) GRN: 10% (+2) LDM: 10% (=) SNP: 3% (=) RES: 2% (+1) Via @survation.bsky.social, 25-27 Jul. Changes w/ 22-24 Jul.

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Voting Intention: LAB: 39% (-24) RFM: 19% (+12) GRN: 14% (+7) CON: 12% (+2) LDM: 8% (+4) RES: 8% (New) Ind: 1% (New) 2nd Round: LAB: 65% RFM: 35% Via @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, 11-23 Jul. Changes w/ 2024.

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 22% (-1) LAB: 22% (+1) CON: 21% (+1) GRN: 13% (=) LDM: 11% (-3) RES: 4% (=) SNP: 2% (-1) Via @yougov.co.uk, 26-27 Jul. Changes w/ 22-23 Jul.

Rundown of the 5 Council By-Elections taking place this week: 🌹 Rumworth (Bolton) 🔶 Hedge End South (Eastleigh) 🌼 Bro'r Llynnoedd (Isle of Anglesey) 🙋 Long Sutton (South Holland) 🏘️ Great Dunmow North (Uttlesford)

Luke was a SpAd for the Conservative Government between 2014-16...

It's *just one poll* for now - but replicated in a General Election, it could see Labour retain 268 seats. Comfortably the largest party, albeit 58 short of a majority.

🌹 Largest Labour Lead (4%) since March 2025 🌹 First Labour lead with an established pollster since April 2025

Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 28% (+4) RFM: 24% (-2) CON: 22% (=) LDM: 12% (+1) GRN: 8% (-3) SNP: 2% (=) Via @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, 24-27 Jul. Changes w/ 21-22 Jul.

Northern Ireland Assembly Voting Intention: SF: 22% (-2) UUP: 16% (+3) DUP: 15% (-3) SDLP: 13% (+2) TUV: 12% (+1) ALL: 10% (-1) GRN: 5% (=) AON: 3% (=) PBP: 2% (=) Via @lucidtalk.bsky.social, July 2026. Changes w/ 9-12 Apr.

🌍 | Lowest Green Party vote share in any poll since October 2025.

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 26% (+2) LAB: 25% (+1) CON: 19% (-2) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 8% (-3) SNP: 3% (=) RES: 1% (-1) Via @survation.bsky.social, 22-24 Jul. Changes w/ 10-14 Jul.

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 23% (=) LAB: 21% (+1) CON: 20% (-1) LDM: 14% (+2) GRN: 13% (-1) RES: 4% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @yougov.co.uk, 22-23 Jul. Changes w/ 19-20 Jul.

Aggregate Result of the 82 Council By-Elections Since the 2026 Local Elections: RFM: 16 (+5) | 22% (+12) CON: 16 (-) | 19% (-1) LDM: 14 (-) | 15% (-) LAB: 11 (-3) | 17% (-6) GRN: 10 (+1) | 15% (-) PLC: 8 (-1) | 4% (+1) Ind: 4 (-3) | 5% (-3) SNP: 2 (+2) | 2% (-1) electionmaps.uk/council-by-e...

Longwell Green (South Gloucestershire) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 37.3% (-11.2) ➡️ RFM: 27.4% (New) 🔶 LDM: 20.0% (-10.4) 🌹 LAB: 9.7% (New) 🌍 GRN: 5.6% (New) No Ind (-21.0) as previous. Conservative HOLD. Changes w/ 2023.

Exmouth Brixington (East Devon) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 35.2% (-2.1) 🔶 LDM: 29.5% (-3.1) ➡️ RFM: 28.7% (New) 🌍 GRN: 6.6% (-2.0) No LAB (-21.5) as previous. Conservative HOLD. Changes w/ 2024.

Grays Town (Thurrock) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 37.0% (+5.3) ➡️ RFM: 27.0% (-7.8) 🙋 Ind: 13.0% (New) 🌳 CON: 12.3% (+1.3) 🌍 GRN: 8.8% (-7.3) 🔶 LDM: 1.9% (-4.5) Labour GAIN from Reform UK. Changes w/ 2026.

Grays Riverside (Thurrock) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 30.2% (+3.8) ➡️ RFM: 28.1% (-5.1) 🌍 GRN: 27.5% (-1.9) 🌳 CON: 14.1% (+3.1) Labour GAIN from Reform UK. Changes w/ 2026.

Cuxton, Halling & Riverside (Medway) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 35.7% (New) 🌳 CON: 30.9% (-12.9) 🌍 GRN: 20.5% (-11.4) 🌹 LAB: 11.4% (-9.1) 🔶 LDM: 1.5% (-2.3) Reform UK GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.