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And a Harvard graduate who chose to spend her career as a public school teacher.

Even on the low end, the data are super clear for undergraduate degrees. BAs make far more than less educated groups, and the BA opens the door to even higher income professional degrees. The income from a typical plumbing or carpentry job looks great when you are 24. It doesn’t scale though.

Dramatically increasing the number of people in the trades would also dramatically lower wages, making these physically demanding jobs less desirable.

I think there’s a big difference between polling lead now and when candidates start actually competing.

Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells are going to hit eventually! Can we get Aaron Judge back please?

Check out the Comparative Agendas Project. Here’s a recent paper on classification methods. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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Much closer!

$50 per review seems steep compared when I can ask Claude to give some detailed feedback. What does it do above a standard frontier model?

Yes

Yeah I've gotten worse pre-AI.

My research output has mostly skipped the AI age due to parenthood. Curious to see if I notice it now that I'm jumping back in.

Substitute "supermajorities" for "large enough majorities to withstand most waves" and I think the take makes more sense. Along the lines of the New Deal Coalition or Republican coalition before that.

Haven't seen it. If that was the whole prompt, I imagine that it was generic as hell.

I think there's a world where AI can handle your desk rejections, or at least offer some kind of partial guidance.

Seriously. First line! Even a glancing skim should catch it.

Yeah I'd like to think its the latter but I'd bet on the former.

He feels like an Astros project.

I don’t think that the lesson is “do a British labor party u turn on immigration” but I do think that “don’t admit so many asylum seekers that there are thousands of people camped on the street” is a defensible position. Less about ideology than competence.

On immigration: I think that the loud centrist types are confusing the public’s reaction Biden era policy failures on immigration for a genuine wholesale anti-immigrant set of attitudes. But I do think that there was something real enough in 2023-2024 that caused problems for Democrats.