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Will Jennings📉🗳️

Профиль Vively

I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, geography, place, trust. I run on espresso.

An interesting thread. It’s worth keeping in mind that a party leader can poll well personally but that to be weakly tethered to their party’s popularity AND for them to be making strategic decisions that significantly impact that party’s prospects in the longer term.

Luke Tryl

As I say in this thread from our groups and polling I think Badenoch leadership critics ignore the counterfactual of not badenoch when the party could have collapsed entirely. In other words I think she might be inlynthing holding them at ~20%. bsky.app/profile/luke...

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Read the latest analysis of the Manchester mayoral by-election from @robfordmancs.bsky.social for @news.sky.com here ->

Politics latest: Labour's Bev Craig wins by-election to succeed Andy Burnham as Greater Manchester mayorLabour have won the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, with Reform in second place. The vote was triggered after Andy Burnham resigned as mayor before he became prime minister. Follow the latest ...news.sky.com
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Interestingly, the Burnham bounce is much larger in the Manchester mayoral vote (compared to the May local elections) than in the national polling so far.

Owen Winter

Labour's share: Manchester 54% (+23 vs local elections) Stockport 50% (+37) Trafford 50% (+27) Wigan 47% (+22) Bury 47% (+21) Salford 47% (+19) Tameside 42% (+18) Oldham 42% (+21) Rochdale 41% (+16) Bolton 40% (+21)

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Oh no, I hate it when one of my snarky replies prompts someone to delete a post!

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The big question after Manchester is what happens next given Reform appears to be fading. The Conservatives seem in no position to dominate on the right, while Restore have exceeded some expectations there is likely a ceiling to their support. Will Burnham and Labour be the main beneficiaries?

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There's a lot of talk about 'bloc politics' but the vote on the right is looking pretty fragmented and uncoordinated right now.

Owen Winter

Manchester mayoral results, first round Bev Craig - Labour 47% (+24 vs local elections) Reform 21% (-10) Green 12% (-7) Restore 9% (new) Conservative 8% (-3) Lib Dem 3% (-7)

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The @findoutnow.bsky.social 'exit poll' substantially under-estimated the Labour vote on first preferences and over-estimated the Greens.

Owen Winter

Manchester mayoral results, first round Bev Craig - Labour 47% (+24 vs local elections) Reform 21% (-10) Green 12% (-7) Restore 9% (new) Conservative 8% (-3) Lib Dem 3% (-7)

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An impressive result for Labour given that the outcome of any mayoral by-election seemed in the balance back at the local elections in May.

Will Jennings📉🗳️

MCR mayoral by-election result. Craig (Lab) 66.3% Astley (Ref) 33.7% Follow live on @news.sky.com

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MCR mayoral by-election result. Craig (Lab) 66.3% Astley (Ref) 33.7% Follow live on @news.sky.com

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The politics of ice cream, in this essay I will...

YouGov

YouGov's latest scoop: vanilla is Britain's favourite ice cream flavour Vanilla: 18% Mint choc chip: 14% Chocolate: 13% Strawberry: 5% Salted caramel: 5% Rum and raisin: 5% Pistachio: 4% Coffee: 3% Raspberry ripple: 3% yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

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Who are the 2%?!

YouGov

Latest YouGov royal family favourability trackers (July 2026) William: 76% positive Catherine: 74% Anne: 70% Charles: 62% Edward: 53% Sophie: 51% Camilla: 43% Harry: 33% Beatrice: 30% Eugenie: 29% Meghan: 22% Andrew: 2% yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

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Ngl, I just spent five minutes looking at these responses by party support. Age seems to be the big divider though!

YouGov

YouGov's latest scoop: vanilla is Britain's favourite ice cream flavour Vanilla: 18% Mint choc chip: 14% Chocolate: 13% Strawberry: 5% Salted caramel: 5% Rum and raisin: 5% Pistachio: 4% Coffee: 3% Raspberry ripple: 3% yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

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The winds of British politics have changed.

YouGov

Which political party is currently doing the most to set the political agenda? Labour: 33% (+19 from 28-29 Aug 2025) Reform UK: 16% (-28) Conservative: 7% (+4) Greens: 4% (+3) Lib Dems: 1% (=) yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

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What's this? A PM who knows how to put the ball in the back of an open net?

Andy Burnham says Gianni Infantino is ‘wrong man’ to lead Fifa after stake-sale planUK prime minister’s intervention raises pressure on Fifa president after resignation of a top adviserwww.ft.com
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*When* you got onto the housing ladder is absolutely critical for this.

John Burn-Murdoch

New from me: Until recently, the gap between comfortably-off and just-getting-started could plausibly be crossed in a decade or two of hard work. Growth in asset prices means that’s no longer true: even a lifetime of striving doesn’t offer a realistic prospect of feeling you’ve “made it”.

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