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Today is the first day of early, in-person absentee voting in Wisconsin for the Aug. 11 partisan primary. The big race is the Democratic primary for governor, but there are many more up and down the ballot where you may have an important choice to make. Be prepared: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Whats-...

ICYMI over the weekend: Guest column from Angela Lang and Nada Elmikashfi: 'Joel Brennan keeps telling us what *he* thinks electability looks like': www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/guest-colu...

Great event with @benwikler.bsky.social in Eau Claire! Hoping I can figure out how to use this fire extinguisher. I think I have a better idea how to now!

Let’s recombobulate, Eau Claire!

MUCH MORE HERE: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/hong-trump...

Francesca Hong could win vs. Tom Tiffany. There's obvious risk involved, but yes, she could win.

Hong actually leads Tiffany among moderate voters — 36% to 30%. And overall, among likely voters, it’s a dead heat.

Numbers like that should suggest she would be further behind in a head-to-head matchup against Tiffany. Being within the margin of error of being a 50-50 race in a state where socialism is viewed this negatively suggests that there is a path for her to win a general election.

Sometimes the convention wisdom gets it right. And this poll makes it extremely clear: Wisconsin voters do not like "democratic socialism." But...

Some net favorability ratings with Wisconsin voters on democratic socialism: - Age 60+ (minus-45) - Moderates (-35) - Independents (-49) And even: - Madison media market (-13)

Francesca Hong has a clear lead in the polls. She dominates among younger voters. She's way out in front with middle-income voters. Her numbers vs. Tiffany are actually better than the topline numbers suggest. People like Hong. But Wisconsin voters do not like socialism.

A party politics perspective on the Wisconsin governor's race. If you're not following it, you should be. open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...

Considering how popular the governor is, considering how many undecided voters there are, and considering how open the moderate lane is, there’s a non-zero chance this could actually work. That and MUCH MORE here: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/hong-trump...

The Crowley Hail Mary is a real longshot, a wild gambit, and the most likely outcome is that it won't work. But this poll shows why it's worth taking a shot. Crowley has the endorsement of the most popular state politician at a moment when the moderate lane is wide open and many are undecided.

With Rodriguez leaving the race, about half of her voters went to Mandela Barnes, half spread out through the field. But this, obviously, doesn't account for Crowley. And hey, you know who is polling REALLY WELL with moderate voters? Gov. Tony Evers, at a net +22 with moderates.

The biggest X-factor going into Wisconsin's primary? The undecided moderate. Nearly two-thirds (!) of moderate voters are undecided, per Marquette. Hong may have a significant lead in the primary, and is in position to win, but isn't doing well there. That's the open lane.

hell yeah i am!

"How much have you had to drink tonight?" "AAAAHHHHH I DON'T KNOW JIM!!!"

I thought her response was quite nice!!

.@benwikler.bsky.social is one of my favorite people to talk to about politics, and I'm very excited to speak with him about his new book, "THIS IS THE PLAN," Sunday in Eau Claire. Maybe we can learn how to use that fire extinguisher on the book cover! www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/event-remi...